Is the $BTC Price Finally Heading Below US$60,000? Here's What Technical Charts Show

Bitcoin Price
BTCUSD
has fallen about 9% since touching US$72,000 on March 25, erasing all gains in the past 30 days and entering negative territory at -2.6% for the month. Currently, BTC is moving sideways within the last 24 hours around US$66,900.

This decline triggered a bearish breakdown from a pattern on the 12-hour chart. However, the presence of hidden bullish divergence indicates a possible short-term rebound. Whether this rebound is strong enough to surpass the supply above the current price will heavily depend on on-chain data.

Head and Shoulders Pattern Breaks Down on 12-Hour Chart

The 12-hour BTC price chart shows a head and shoulders pattern formed since late February. The neckline is around US$67,700, and the breakdown occurred on March 27.

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In theory, the target for this pattern’s decline is a 12% correction from the neckline. If achieved, Bitcoin’s price would fall below the psychological level of US$60,000, targeting the US$59,400 zone.

However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator, signals a different story. From February 28 to March 27, the price formed a higher low while RSI formed a lower low.

This hidden bullish divergence, which usually indicates trend continuation rather than reversal, has already resulted in a rebound of 1.87% from the latest low.

This divergence suggests that the support area around US$65,000 may still hold for now. Nevertheless, this rebound faces a wall of supply above, and whale holders who can typically lift the price have not shown strong conviction.

More Than 6% of Supply is Between US$66,900 and US$69,400

UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD), a metric from Glassnode mapping the last price at which Bitcoin supply changed hands, shows three dense clusters just above the current price.

At US$66,900 (near current price), about 2.37% of the total supply last changed hands. At US$68,100, another 1.96%. And at US$69,400, an additional 1.96%. Combined, roughly 6.29% of BTC supply is concentrated in a range of just US$2,500 above the current trading price.

These clusters act as resistance because holders who bought at these prices—and are now nearly break-even—tend to sell during rebounds to cut losses.

Whale behavior also underscores caution in the current Bitcoin supply zone. The largest whale group holding between 100,000 and 1 million BTC reduced holdings from 675,200 to 670,000 on March 24, a decrease of 5,200 BTC.

The mid-tier cluster (10,000 to 100,000) briefly declined then recovered, ending up close to 2.25 million. Only the smallest whale group (1,000 to 10,000) added slightly, from 4.21 million to 4.22 million BTC.

Overall, these three groups added about 4,800 BTC. But market confidence is actually weaker than these figures suggest.

The largest wallet, which is most influential, actually cut exposure by 5,200 BTC. The 10,000 BTC increase by the smallest group isn’t enough to offset the impact of large whale movements, as large holder distribution often signals further weakness, while accumulation by smaller clusters more frequently indicates buying on dips absorbed by the supply above.

Therefore, the rebound from hidden bullish divergence is likely to be limited within the US$66,900 to US$69,400 supply zone mentioned earlier.

Bitcoin Price Prediction and US$66,600 Line

The nearest critical level for Bitcoin is at US$66,600. If the price stays above it, it indicates that the nearby supply cluster has not triggered a major sell-off. A rebound from this level could push BTC to US$68,700 and even the psychological US$70,000 level.

However, to reach US$70,000, Bitcoin must break through the three supply clusters. Given the weak whale conviction, any rebound below US$70,000 remains risky for triggering another wave of selling. A new bearish structure would weaken if the price rises above US$72,000, the right shoulder peak.

On the downside, if the US$66,600 level is lost, the path opens toward US$65,200 and US$63,300. After that, the measured head-and-shoulders pattern, approximately 12%, targets the US$59,400 zone, pushing Bitcoin below US$60,000 for the first time since the February lows.

Currently, the US$66,600 level acts as a boundary between a light rebound toward US$69,400 and potential breakdown below US$60,000.