Citigroup Bitcoin Price Forecast: Analysts Revise Price Targets Amid US Regulatory Slowdown

Major investment bank Citigroup has revised its long-term forecasts for cryptocurrencies, significantly lowering expectations for Bitcoin and Ethereum development. Amid geopolitical tensions and slowing legislative initiatives in the U.S., the bank adjusted its Bitcoin and Ethereum price outlooks, reflecting a more cautious view on digital asset prospects. As of March 23, 2026, BTC was trading around $70,860 with a daily increase of 5.13%, while ETH was at $2,160 with a 6.32% gain.

New Target Figures: Citigroup’s Expectations Halved

Citigroup analysts revised their 12-month Bitcoin price forecast, lowering the target from $143,000 to $112,000. For Ethereum, the forecast is $3,175 compared to the previous estimate of $4,304. This reduction in expectations is driven by three key factors: slowing crypto legislation in the U.S., decreased activity on blockchains, and revised projections for inflows into crypto ETFs.

Despite the lowered forecasts, Citigroup analysts note that current target levels still imply significant growth potential compared to current market prices. This suggests the bank remains fairly optimistic about mid-term crypto trends, albeit more conservative than a few months ago.

ETF Flows as a Stability Anchor in a Volatile Market

Citigroup analyst Alex Saunders emphasized in his report that capital inflows through exchange-traded funds remain the most significant support factor for the market. The bank lowered its demand forecasts for 12 months to $10 billion for Bitcoin and $2.5 billion for Ethereum, but these flows are still considered a key source of stability amid broad macroeconomic uncertainties.

Notably, demand for crypto ETFs shows resilience even amid weak technical conditions and a lack of strong speculative interest. This indicates growing institutional interest in digital assets as part of long-term portfolio strategies.

Legislation as the Main Growth Catalyst: Risks of the CLARITY Act Delay

The outlook for the crypto market largely depends on regulatory developments in the U.S. Saunders notes that the window for passing comprehensive digital asset legislation is narrowing, with market expectations for approval this year dropping to about 60%.

The key law, the CLARITY Act, approved by the U.S. House of Representatives, remains pending in the Senate, where lawmakers are negotiating competing proposals. This legislation is critical for the industry as it will establish clear rules for classifying crypto assets and clarify regulatory jurisdiction. Ongoing conflicts between the SEC and CFTC have created legal uncertainty, hindering institutional capital inflows.

Passing the CLARITY Act would eliminate this uncertainty and, according to analysts, serve as a more powerful growth catalyst for cryptocurrencies than the gradual issuance of individual regulatory acts.

Technical Breakthrough Fades: Current Consolidation Analysis

Since Bitcoin’s October peak, the market has lost momentum. Analysts note liquidations of futures, position fatigue, and consolidation in the $70,000–$74,000 range. Bitcoin is trading below several key technical resistance levels, limiting short-term growth prospects.

Ethereum faces even greater pressure due to sluggish on-chain activity and declining speculative interest. However, analysts do not rule out potential recovery driven by the growth of stablecoins, asset tokenization trends, and possible regulatory focus on the DeFi sector, which could increase Ethereum network utilization.

Citigroup Scenarios: From $165,000 (Optimistic) to $58,000 (Pessimistic)

Within its analytical model, Citigroup considers three scenarios. The optimistic scenario envisions accelerated institutional adoption via ETFs, reaching $165,000 for BTC and $4,488 for ETH. The baseline scenario projects current target levels ($112,000 and $3,175).

The pessimistic scenario, considering potential macroeconomic recession conditions, foresees a drop to $58,000 for Bitcoin and $1,198 for Ethereum. Although less likely, this scenario reflects risks related to sudden liquidation of speculative positions and macro shocks.

Conclusions: What the Forecast Revision Means for Investors

Citigroup’s lowered targets reflect a more cautious outlook on the crypto market but do not fundamentally alter the bank’s positive long-term stance on cryptocurrencies. Key takeaways are: first, ETF flows remain the main market support; second, U.S. regulatory stance will be a decisive factor; third, technical recovery requires overcoming the psychological barrier of $70,000 for Bitcoin.

The Bitcoin price outlook remains positive in the medium term, but investors should prepare for a period of consolidation and potential fluctuations until the legislative environment in the U.S. becomes clearer.