Breaking Rate Cut Expectations: Bitcoin OGs Made Big Sales

The Federal Reserve’s latest decision has deeply impacted expectations for interest rate cuts in the crypto market. Early investors known as Bitcoin OGs have started to exit their positions following this development. Blockchain data tracked by Lookonchain shows that at least two long-term investors have sold over 1,650 BTC valued at $117.87 million.

Hawkish Fed Disappoints Crypto Investors

The central bank’s stance on interest rate cuts has changed significantly over the past week. In the Fed’s decision announced Wednesday, the benchmark borrowing cost was kept steady between 3.5% and 3.75%, with signals that future rate cuts will proceed more slowly. This announcement was a major disappointment for investors holding positions in risky assets.

Bitcoin and the broader crypto market experienced a sharp decline afterward. Data shows Bitcoin was trading around $70,910, with a 24-hour increase of +4.05%. However, in the days following the Fed decision, market weakness was observed; Ethereum (ETH) traded below $2,000, while Solana (SOL) was at $91.85, XRP at $1.44, and Dogecoin (DOGE) at $0.10. The CoinDesk 20 Index also fell 3% to 2,056 points.

Changing Expectations for Rate Cuts in One Month

The message from the Fed’s “dot plot” interest rate projections was clear: the central bank only expects one rate cut this year. A month ago, the market believed there was a 62% chance of two to three rate cuts. Now, this expectation has been dramatically revised.

Matt Mena, a crypto research strategist at 21Shares, noted that inflationary pressures driven by sticky inflation and rising energy costs persist. “The narrative that inflation will stay high for a long time has regained strength, forcing investors to abandon hopes of a quick easing cycle,” he said. The Fed’s cautious stance on inflation has led to a sharp re-pricing of rate cut bets.

Blockchain Data: Bitcoin Whales Reduced Positions

When examining data from decentralized platforms like Polymarket and CME Fed Funds futures, the probability of only one rate cut this year has risen to about 80%. This tightening liquidity outlook has negatively affected overall risk appetite.

According to Lookonchain, an experienced whale sold from an 11,000 BTC pool, supported by 650 BTC. Another early adopter liquidated 1,000 BTC from a 5,000 BTC holding. These sales indicate that large investors are reassessing their portfolios as expectations for rate cuts weaken.

New Investment Wave in Prediction Markets

A new window of opportunity is opening for forecasting events affecting financial markets within the crypto ecosystem. A newly established venture capital firm, 5c© Capital, backed by CEOs of Polymarket and Kalshi, is investing in startups around prediction markets.

The fund plans to raise up to $35 million over two years and support around 20 early-stage projects. Its focus includes not only prediction market exchanges but also infrastructure components such as data tools, liquidity provision services, and compliance systems. The launch took place amid rapid growth in prediction markets; over 20 early investors, including a Millennium Management portfolio manager, participated in this funding round.

The Fed’s cautious approach to rate cuts is likely to continue exerting pressure on the crypto market in the short term. However, during this period of uncertainty, new opportunities in alternative investment vehicles and prediction markets are accelerating ecosystem participants’ adaptation and strategic repositioning.