#创作者冲榜 Gold plummets $525 in a single week, silver crashes nearly 16%, larger declines may be on the horizon

As Middle East tensions persist and energy prices remain elevated, markets are increasingly concerned about inflation pressures re-emerging, forcing major global central banks to pause their easing cycles and shift to prolonged observation.

Under this influence, gold has continued to suffer severe setbacks recently. After breaking through the 50-day moving average, a key technical level, bearish sentiment in the market has further intensified. Multiple analysts warn that if Middle East conflicts continue to drag on and energy infrastructure sustains additional damage, gold may face further pain in the near term, with risks of pullback toward the lower end of the $4,000 range not ruled out.

Gold price drops $525, breaks key technical level, silver plummets nearly 16%

Amid no signs of the Middle East war ending soon, some analysts warn that gold investors may need to brace for further market declines. The reason is that sustained energy price increases are reigniting inflation threats, which could force major global central banks to abandon their original easing path and adopt a "wait-and-see" policy stance instead.

Gold markets experienced a significant technical breakdown this week. As gold prices fell below the 50-day moving average positioned just below $5,000/ounce, the market technical structure deteriorated markedly. Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at OANDA, told Kitco News that Wednesday's breakdown and subsequent sustained selling have brought the gold market to a critical turning point.

He points out that from a price structure perspective, gold's 23% rebound from the February 2, 2026 low of $4,402 to the March 2 high of $5,420 now appears more like a "corrective bounce," or even a classic "dead cat bounce."

This suggests gold's next phase is more likely to turn into a prolonged bearish-driven decline. From a weekly perspective, gold fell $525.56 this week, a decline of 10.47%, marking the largest single-week drop since 1983. Since the war broke out, cumulative gold price declines have exceeded 14%. Recent market data shows gold once fell below $4,500, while the year's high reached above $5,600.

By contrast, silver's decline has been even steeper. Weekly silver is set to cumulate a drop of 15.67%, marking the largest decline since surging and falling in January this year. Spot silver settled at $67.889/ounce, down 6.74% intraday!

Middle East situation and the Strait of Hormuz become key variables for gold's next move

Analysts widely believe that gold's subsequent direction almost entirely depends on how the Middle East situation evolves and whether the Strait of Hormuz can resume normal passage, thereby easing global supply chain and energy price pressures.

Precious metals analyst Bernard Dahdah stated in a latest report that while markets await further clarity on the Iran war, he expects gold prices to potentially fluctuate in the $4,600-$4,700 range in the short term, but simultaneously warns that downside risks are increasing. He points out that if energy assets sustain further damage and the war drags on longer, the ultimate result could be gold prices falling toward the lower end of the $4,000/ounce range. The reason is that under such a scenario, even the Federal Reserve might be forced to re-raise rates due to persistently elevated energy prices.

However, he also emphasizes that this does not mean gold's long-term trend will weaken permanently. If energy infrastructure damage is limited and oil prices can quickly revert to pre-war levels, global central banks' purchasing interest in gold may re-strengthen, pushing gold prices back to their long-term trajectory running above $5,000/ounce.

Why doesn't gold act like a safe-haven asset amid war?

Despite gold facing obvious headwinds recently, multiple analysts remain optimistic about its medium to long-term prospects. Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy, notes that the core logic behind investors' early-year gold purchases hasn't actually changed, as the global economy still faces unprecedented uncertainty, while geopolitical turmoil and government debt expansion issues remain unresolved.

However, he also points out that current markets need to first experience a round of sentiment and position correction. In other words, investors need to first "sober up from their infatuation," after which they may rekindle enthusiasm for gold. For those still bullish on gold, they need to see evidence that the worst stage has passed before they can have greater confidence to re-enter. Analysts believe the main reason gold hasn't demonstrated traditional safe-haven strength in a war environment is the re-inflation threat brought by rising energy prices.

The core of current market trading is no longer just the geopolitical conflict itself, but how the conflict transmits through oil prices to inflation, interest rates, and monetary policy paths.

Central banks enter full observation mode, while markets rapidly unwind rate-cut bets!

Over the past week, major global central banks have almost all maintained interest rates unchanged, collectively entering a relatively neutral "wait-and-see mode" to observe how the war will ultimately impact inflation expectations. Haworth points out that the next four to six weeks will be an important observation window for various central banks, especially as companies begin adjusting budget expectations before summer, policymakers will see more clearly whether the energy shock will materially affect business decisions and pricing behavior.

However, the market clearly isn't that patient. Investors have already begun rapidly unwinding bets on Fed rate cuts by year-end. Thu Lan Nguyen, head of currency and commodities research at Commerzbank, noted that in the United States, not even one complete rate cut by year-end has been adequately priced into the market. At the end of February, markets broadly expected the Fed to cut rates 2.5 times. She points out that after the recent Fed meeting, rate-cut expectations were further weakened, primarily because Fed Chair Powell repeatedly emphasized inflation risks and explicitly stated that if future indicators show inflation cannot return to target levels in the medium term, further monetary easing will not be considered.

Against this backdrop, as long as energy prices continue rising and lift long-term inflation expectations, gold prices will likely continue to face downward pressure.

Gold's long-term bull market may not necessarily be over, but short-term consolidation confirmation is more needed

Although the Fed's hawkish stance typically weighs on gold through elevated bond yields and the dollar, some analysts believe long-term gold opportunities haven't disappeared. Senior market analyst Michael Brown suggests that if central banks overly focus on inflation and continue tightening policy amid recession environments, this itself could constitute a serious policy error. He points out that monetary policy has limited effectiveness against supply-driven inflation, and central banks can often only slow economic growth by dampening demand.

Therefore, in the context of highly uncertain conflict duration and economic impact in Iran, central banks' adoption of a "wait-and-see" strategy is actually the most logical approach. But if major central banks ultimately do commit the policy error of "austerity amid recession," gold could still perform well over a longer timeframe, as investors would then seek tools to hedge against economic downturn risks.

Brown states he doesn't believe the gold bull market has ended, but at the current stage, markets need to first experience a thorough consolidation period before having stronger reason to increase confidence in a "buy-the-dip" approach.