Enzeworth: 2026 Gold Price Forecast! Year of Accelerated Gains, Target 7380!

Current time: March 21, 2026. International gold spot price currently quoted at 4497, domestic gold T+D approximately 1015. Reviewing 2025, gold has achieved significant gains, and in 2026, multiple core drivers converging suggest gold prices are poised for stronger accelerated upward momentum.

I. Core Driver: Rate Cuts Exceed Expectations, Monetary Easing Window Opens

The primary catalyst for gold price increases in 2026 is the Federal Reserve's rate cuts exceeding expectations. To date, U.S. Treasury debt has reached 39 trillion and continues to expand, with high interest rate environments progressively constraining economic growth. Market expects the incoming Federal Reserve chair will drive substantial rate cuts, and the Trump administration is eager to push rates below 1%, making rate cuts an inevitable trend with cuts in 2026 likely exceeding 2025.

As a non-yielding asset, declining interest rates will directly reduce holding costs, becoming a key driver for gold price breakthroughs. Combined with the latest Federal Reserve dot plot, while 2026's full-year rate cut path faces inflation headwinds, 1-2 rate cuts throughout the year with cumulative cuts of 50-75 basis points remain market consensus, opening upside space for gold prices.

II. Capital Dynamics: Asset Allocation Restructuring, Small Capital Drives Large Moves

The magnitude of gold price increases is fundamentally determined by capital scale.

Physical demand: Central banks globally are the largest long-term gold buyers, with 95% of surveyed central banks planning to continue accumulating gold in 2026, with average monthly purchases projected at 60 tons, forming a solid price "floor."

Electronic trading: Compared to the 60 trillion scale of U.S. stocks and 25 trillion in privately held U.S. Treasury debt, the gold electronic trading market remains relatively small. Even modest Treasury fund inflows to the gold market can generate tremendous gains.

According to Goldman Sachs' latest report, gold comprises only 0.17% of total U.S. asset allocation, significantly below both the 2012 peak and global average levels. Current asset allocation capital is showing a "rush to enter" trend, with 2026 gold electronic trading fund inflows very likely far exceeding 2025, becoming the core incremental driver for gold prices.

III. Risks and Risk-Off: Economic Headwinds Emerging, Risk-Off Sentiment Heating Up

The U.S. economy faces multiple headwinds, with safe-haven demand continuously supporting gold prices.

The job market continues weakening, with rising unemployment rates and declining overall non-farm employment trends, pressuring economic growth;

The financial system maintains surface prosperity through implicit liquidity support, U.S. stock bubbles hang by a thread, and market concerns about financial crises intensify.

While vigilance is warranted regarding liquidity crisis variables—narrowing U.S.-Japan rate differentials or surging U.S. stock risks could trigger short-term fund stampedes causing temporary gold price pullbacks—the Federal Reserve has ended quantitative tightening and stands ready to release liquidity anytime. On balance, liquidity crisis is not inevitable and does not impact 2026's overall bullish gold trend.

IV. 2026 Target Price Calculation

Gold rose from 2600 to 4380 in 2025, with full-year gains of 68.5%. Based on the three major drivers above, 2026 gold prices are positioned to sustain strength, and if replicating 2025's gains, the target price would reach 7380, corresponding to domestic gold prices around 1650.

The above is Enzeworth's personal analysis for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice!
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