Bitcoin showed an overall pattern of rallying then falling back with weak oscillations today. After encountering pressure at the 71535 high in early trading, it quickly declined, breaking below the 71000 round number, with a low reaching the 68934 area. Currently trading around 70400, with a 24-hour decline of approximately 1.15%, as short-term bearish momentum continues to release.

On the daily level, the uptrend channel shows signs of breakdown. Overnight, influenced by the Fed's hawkish decision, it ended an eight-day winning streak, with the K-line forming a high-position bearish engulfing candlestick pattern, causing the bullish trend to weaken periodically. The MACD indicator shows a death cross at high levels with expanding green columns, RSI (14) has retreated to the weak zone around 40, the moving average system displays bearish alignment, and price has broken below the EMA30 key support. The short-term bullish-dominated pattern has been broken, and a weak downtrend rhythm has been established.

On the four-hour level, the trend further confirms the bearish structure. Price is moving along the lower Bollinger Band, with the Bollinger Band opening downward, forming a one-sided weak downtrend pattern. Short-term moving averages are densely concentrated in the 70800-71200 zone, making it difficult for rebounds to effectively break through. While MACD green columns are contracting, no golden cross signal has appeared, indicating rebounds are merely bearish corrections rather than trend reversals. In terms of volume, the rebound phase shows obvious volume contraction with insufficient capital interest in chasing highs. If subsequent volume fails to increase, the downtrend will continue to extend.

The current core market logic is high interest rates suppressing risk appetite and bullish momentum exhaustion. The Fed's statements on raising 2026 inflation expectations and maintaining higher rates for longer continue to suppress risk asset preference, with Bitcoin as a typical risk asset unable to escape this pressure. Short-term rebounds lack strength, with pullbacks during this period not representing wash-outs but rather normal continuations of the bearish trend. Today's operational core approach has shifted to using rebounds to establish short positions.

Specific operational suggestions: Pay attention to the pressure situation in the upper 71300-71800 zone and the 72500-73300 zone. If pressure is reached without breaking, consider attempting high shorts targeting 5000-6000 points downside. If price stabilizes above 73300, it can be considered a trend reversal, and one can attempt lows.

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