#美联储维持利率不变 Fed "Hawks" Hold Steady: The "Tight Hoop" of High Rates Must Stay

In the early hours of March 19 Beijing time, the Federal Reserve anchored interest rates in the 3.50%-3.75% range for the second consecutive time. Although "no rate cut" aligned with market expectations, the hawkish signals released after the meeting directly shattered market illusions about monetary easing.

Key Takeaways: Dot Plot "Shrinkage" and Stagflation Concerns

Rate Cut Expectations Reduced: The dot plot shows only 1 rate cut in 2026, with officials supporting "no rate cuts" increasing to 7, meaning "sustained high rates for longer" has become consensus.

Inflation Resurgence: Affected by Middle East conflicts pushing up oil prices and tariffs, the Federal Reserve significantly raised its 2026 core PCE inflation forecast from 2.5% to 2.7%. Powell stated plainly that "no rate cuts without inflation progress," and even discussed the possibility of "rate hikes down the line" internally.

Market Impact: Crypto and U.S. Stocks Fall Together

Following the decision, Bitcoin plummeted below 71,000 dollars, and the three major U.S. equity indices closed lower. The sustained high-rate environment continues to suppress risk appetite, with funds flowing back into dollar assets for safety. For the crypto sector, the "liquidity faucet" of monetary easing remains tightly shut in the near term, and the market needs to digest macro pressure amid volatility.