The current focus of the crypto market has shifted from pure technical rebounds back to macro news-driven stages. The most anticipated event tomorrow morning is the Federal Reserve System's upcoming interest rate decision. Based on current market expectations, it will likely maintain rates unchanged, with the upper limit expected to remain around 3.75%, as although U.S. inflation is generally controllable, international crude oil prices have risen again due to escalating Middle East tensions, particularly heightened transportation risks in the Strait of Hormuz, making energy prices an important variable affecting policy stance. What the market truly cares about is not whether rate hikes will pause, but whether Jerome Powell releases signals about the pace of rate cuts within the year during his post-meeting remarks. If the wording is dovish, risk asset sentiment will receive further support, and Bitcoin and Ethereum may extend their short-term strength; if he continues to emphasize sustained higher rates for longer, the market may first experience a sharp washout.

From the crypto sector itself, the core driver behind recent Bitcoin and Ethereum gains remains institutional capital inflows. Since March, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have shown renewed significant net inflows, with BlackRock's IBIT continuing to lead, with single-day inflows exceeding $260 million at times, indicating mainstream institutions have not clearly retreated at current levels but are continuously accumulating positions at higher prices. Meanwhile, Ethereum ETF capital has also improved, suggesting the current market is not a single Bitcoin rally but a broader recovery in risk appetite. Bitcoin's recent break above 74,000 is essentially a structural rebound driven by both capital flows and short covering rather than pure sentiment-driven rallying.

From an international perspective, recent Middle East conflict escalation bringing risk-off sentiment has also caused Bitcoin to be reassigned the "digital gold" narrative by the market. Gold and crude oil strengthening simultaneously, while Bitcoin maintains resilience when traditional risk assets are under pressure, shows more and more capital is beginning to include crypto assets in risk-hedging allocations. If tomorrow's rate decision meets market expectations and the dollar index declines, Bitcoin may continue to test previous highs, with Ethereum likely extending its catch-up rally, and overall trends remaining biased toward upswings amid consolidation; however, if the meeting surprises with hawkish signals, especially with the dollar and Treasury yields strengthening together, short-term sharp declines cannot be ruled out for deleveraging, followed by finding new support. The current rhythm is very clear: news determines volatility magnitude, capital flows determine direction, and the current direction remains bullish, only with stronger consolidation at higher levels. #美联储利率决议 $BTC