According to reports, Trump plans to control the Strait of Hormuz with "military force." The war may last much longer～

Once this news broke, the market's first reaction boiled down to basically two words: extended risk～
If the situation truly evolves toward "military intervention," then the uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz will be hard to dissipate in the short term. What does this mean for the market? It's simple: risk premium won't fall quickly.
From a macro transmission perspective, once the strait faces prolonged tension, higher oil prices → sticky inflation → difficult rate cuts. This chain will continuously suppress the valuation space of risk assets. In other words, the issue isn't whether there will be volatility, but that volatility may be "stretched across a longer time dimension."
From a Dow Theory perspective, this looks more like an external shock variable within a major-level trend, which will amplify oscillations rather than immediately give direction.
So the focus going forward isn't guessing when it will end, but observing one thing:
Is this conflict a "short drama," or a "series"～
#IXIC