After BTC pulled back from the high of 98,000, how should we understand the current trend?

As of the latest data, Bitcoin is priced at $75.54K, clearly distant from the previous high of $98,000. This rapid decline from the high indicates that the move is not just a simple technical correction but reflects a deeper change in market structure.

From the high of $98,000, this decline signals a new trend initiation

When the price was near $98,000, the market had already signaled a clear top. This was not a routine correction of the previous rally but the start of a new downtrend. From the breach of the key support at $94,000 to the confirmation of the top at $98,000, the entire process clearly points in one direction—bearish forces are gaining dominance.

The move down from $98,000 to $74,000 happened in a very short time, with a drop of over $20,000, demonstrating the certainty and speed of the decline. For trend-following traders, this rapid move is actually easier to trade because the market rhythm is clear and less prone to confusing secondary signals.

Why rapid moves are easier to grasp

Long-term trend traders often face a common dilemma—markets move too slowly. If a decline unfolds over three weeks or even a month, any rebound or consolidation can trigger emotional reactions, leading to doubts about the trend’s integrity. Frequent “plotting” of scenarios can ultimately disrupt clear judgment.

However, this cycle is the opposite. Because the market declines rapidly in a short period, most trend followers can better hold their positions. The lack of prolonged hesitation means fewer distractions, making it easier to maintain psychological resilience.

Multi-timeframe resonance confirms resistance near $79,000

From multiple timeframes, the current structure still shows a typical bearish alignment. The daily moving averages are bearish, and on the 1-hour chart, the resistance is most evident around $79,000.

Notably, this $79,000 resistance behaves similarly to previous key levels like $84,000 and $90,000: as long as it isn’t broken, the outlook remains bearish. A rebound that fails to surpass the previous high essentially offers a shorting opportunity. The recent rebound’s high also did not break above prior peaks, providing logical reasons to hold short positions.

How to handle existing shorts and what conditions signal a reversal

For traders already holding short positions, the current approach should be clear: there’s no need to exit all positions now. Previous advice suggested partial profit-taking, but the core idea is to retain some positions to potentially capitalize on further downside.

The ideal exit for trend trades is passive—exit when the trend shows clear reversal signals, not prematurely close positions. As long as the daily and 1-hour charts do not show definitive reversal signs, there’s no reason to close shorts early. The current market structure indicates that neither timeframe has confirmed a reversal.

For a true trend reversal, two conditions must be met simultaneously: first, a significant resistance level must be broken convincingly; second, the market must develop a clear bullish structure—an entire pattern of rising, retracing, and rising again. Both are essential. It’s important to note that if the reversal occurs only on the 1-hour chart, it’s more likely a healthy correction within a larger downtrend rather than a genuine trend change. A major reversal requires bullish alignment on the daily or larger timeframes.

Risks and operational framework for those currently out of the market

For traders currently in a no-position state, short-term shorting can be considered, but risk management must be prioritized. Stop-loss should be placed above key resistance levels, such as above $79,000 or directly above the $80,000 round number.

Short-term shorts require strict stop-loss enforcement because an upward breakout is possible. Proper risk control often determines the success or failure of short-term trades.

If a reversal signal appears, which zones to watch

Suppose the market breaks key resistance on the 1-hour chart and forms a bullish structure, leading to a sustained rally. In that case, a rebound on the daily timeframe could be triggered. The key resistance zone to monitor would be between $86,000 and $89,000.

Participation in a bullish move must follow this sequence: first, see a confirmed breakout of key resistance; second, confirm the formation of a bullish structure; only then consider a small long position targeting a rebound. The order of operations is crucial—never preemptively enter, but wait for confirmation.

Why trend trading is more stable with a unidirectional approach

This is an often-overlooked but vital trading principle. In trending markets, sticking to one side—either long or short—is the most reliable approach. The reason is straightforward: retracements carry higher risk, and trying to catch both sides can disrupt the rhythm.

When the rhythm is disturbed, traders tend to chase lows with shorts or highs with longs, leading to a cycle of frequent stops and emotional stress. This can cause the original clear trend to reverse against expectations.

If you exit a trend prematurely, the best approach isn’t to jump into a new position immediately but to wait patiently for the next clear correction or consolidation pattern, then re-enter in the direction of the trend. This disciplined rhythm often yields more stable profits.

Overall current outlook

From the 1-hour structure, the market remains in a cycle of “decline → rebound → encounter resistance → continue shorting,” consistent with previous behavior at key levels. The main tone remains bearish.

Further market development will test this view, but the core logic remains unchanged: until reversal conditions are confirmed, the bearish trend dominates. Respect multi-timeframe structures and adhere strictly to trading discipline—these are key to steady gains in such a market.