Global Capital Reallocation: Institutional Investors Reassess U.S. Markets Amid Anthropic Fundraising Wave

Global financial markets are undergoing a new round of structural adjustments. From the race for AI funding, to weak signals in traditional economic indicators, and to institutional investors reassessing their US market exposure—these seemingly disparate events actually reflect the same core theme: as the global economic landscape becomes turbulent, capital is engaging in new risk pricing and asset allocation.

AI Funding Race: Anthropic’s $30 Billion Record-Breaking Funding, OpenAI Faces Market Pressure

The AI industry’s funding boom has recently reached new heights. According to the latest disclosures, Anthropic has completed a $30 billion funding deal, raising its post-money valuation to $380 billion, making it one of the highest-valued private companies globally.

This round was led by Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund and Coatue Management, with participation from well-known investors such as D.E. Shaw & Co., Dragoneer Investment Group, Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund, Iconiq, and MGX. Tech giants like Nvidia and Microsoft also joined. In contrast, OpenAI, once seen as the dominant player in AI, has been relatively low-profile. Although it is seeking funding, its scale and market attention have been impacted by emerging competitors like Anthropic.

Anthropic’s valuation has roughly doubled with this funding round, reflecting investor confidence in this startup’s competitiveness and indicating that, amid reshaping AI competition, capital is accelerating toward those viewed as “alternative choices” in innovation. Analysts note that with the launch of tools from Alphabet, Anthropic, and startups like Altruist, the entire software and financial services sectors could face disruption.

Mixed Signals in the US Economy: Institutional Managers Reassess Risks

Contrasting the AI funding frenzy are signs of weakness in traditional US economic indicators. In January, the US second-hand home sales market experienced historic lows and was hit by widespread winter storms, with sales dropping to their largest decline in nearly four years. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), January existing home sales fell 8.4% month-over-month to an annualized rate of 3.91 million units, well below economists’ median estimates. Sales in the South declined even more sharply, down 9% to an annualized rate of 1.81 million units.

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said that the unseasonably cold weather and above-normal precipitation in January make it difficult to determine the fundamental reasons for the decline, but the data still reflect structural challenges in the US housing market.

These economic signals are prompting global institutional investors to reconsider their US market allocations. Martin Præstegaard, CEO of Denmark’s second-largest pension fund ATP, recently stated that the fund is “conducting a comprehensive review of the US political system” and may need to reduce exposure to US private markets. The asset manager, overseeing $112 billion, is re-evaluating potential US investment risks.

Præstegaard admitted that the US “has performed very well over the years,” but the key question is “whether that can continue.” As of late December, ATP’s private equity portfolio was about 113 billion kroner ($18 billion), with significant US allocations including unlisted equities, real estate, and infrastructure. While ATP’s gradual withdrawal from US markets is underway, this shift in attitude is significant—top global institutional investors are beginning to treat the US market, once considered a “sure thing,” with caution.

Easing Rate Hike Expectations and Capital Flight to Safety: A New Round of Market Play

Against this backdrop of market adjustment, the latest moves by hedge fund manager David Einhorn offer another perspective. Co-founder of Greenlight Capital, Einhorn announced he has bought SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) futures, betting that under new Fed Chair Kevin Walsh, rate cuts will “far exceed” market expectations.

Einhorn said, “One of the best trades right now is betting that this year’s rate cuts will be more than expected,” predicting that by year-end, the Fed will cut rates more than the market currently anticipates—likely more than two times, each by 0.25 percentage points. This view emerged after better-than-expected employment data led traders to lower their expectations for Fed rate cuts this year, with current pricing around two cuts.

This optimistic outlook on rate cuts partly reflects market concerns about economic slowdown risks, and also indicates that, amid rising global economic uncertainty, capital is hedging risks and seeking yield through various channels.

Political and Geopolitical Risks Intensify

Beyond economic data and market adjustments, geopolitical risks are also escalating. US President Donald Trump stated he expects negotiations with Iran could last up to a month. When asked by reporters, Trump said, “I guess it’s about a month, roughly,” emphasizing that “it should happen soon,” and warned that if no deal is reached, Iran will face “very painful” consequences.

This indicates that the Trump administration is accelerating diplomatic efforts with Iran to curb its nuclear ambitions. However, the complex global geopolitical landscape means that any major negotiations could trigger chain reactions affecting energy prices, risk asset valuations, and more.

Market Outlook and Investment Insights

Considering these signals, global capital is undergoing a reallocation. On one hand, the booming AI funding scene contrasts with OpenAI’s relative low profile, indicating a shift in market assessment of AI competition. On the other hand, top institutional managers like Martin Præstegaard are reassessing US market risks, challenging the traditional notion of “safe US assets.”

Brian Barbetta, co-head of the technology team at Wellington Management, pointed out that although OpenAI currently appears to be surpassed by competitors, “even if not inevitable, OpenAI is very likely to launch a new model this year that regains market attention,” which could benefit related stocks. This suggests that the current market landscape remains dynamic and evolving.

Overall, amid slowing global economic growth, rising geopolitical risks, and reshaping of funding patterns, institutional investors are adjusting strategies across multiple dimensions—geography, asset classes, and risk exposure. The decision shifts by Præstegaard and ATP may well exemplify this broader trend.