Analyst Refutes 'Bitcoin Falls Into Bear Market in 2026' Prediction, Reveals What Really Awaits

Michaël van de Poppe, a well-known cryptocurrency analyst, has completely dismissed the idea that 2026 will be a “bear year” for Bitcoin. According to him, this prediction lacks basis in market data and is merely a common expectation built on investor fears. However, a deeper look into historical cycles, market liquidity, and Bitcoin’s current position within the global financial system—especially in Q1 2026—paints a very different picture.

Why the Classic Bitcoin Cycle No Longer Applies

One key point Van de Poppe emphasizes is that the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle is losing influence. Instead, the market is reorganizing itself around a new structure, where institutional capital flows are central rather than the cyclical pressures of the past. This marks a fundamental shift in how the market operates.

Past Trends Show What Has Happened, Not What Will Happen

Looking back at previous years, investors naturally feared major corrections. In 2014, Bitcoin dropped 30%; in 2018, it fell 74%; and in 2022, it declined 64%. These figures are enough to reignite fears. However, Van de Poppe argues that repeating history doesn’t mean the same scenario will unfold again. The current trend has diverged from classic models, and the market has evolved in a different direction.

Capital Flows Have Shifted: A Sign of Return

An interesting phenomenon Van de Poppe points out is the divergence between gold and Bitcoin. Recently, capital has shifted strongly into gold, with gold prices surpassing all-time highs while Bitcoin remains relatively weak. But the analyst sees this not as a negative sign. Instead, it indicates systemic instability, and history shows that similar phases are often followed by strong rallies in risk assets like Bitcoin. With gold absorbing trillions of dollars in a short period, Bitcoin has the potential for much higher gains once the capital finally flows back.

Macroeconomic Conditions: When the System Needs Risk Assets

The macroeconomic landscape is creating a supportive environment for Bitcoin. Unemployment rates are rising, bond yields are falling, and central banks need increasing liquidity. Especially in the US, weak labor markets and enormous government debt are forcing interest rate cuts, fostering an environment conducive to high-risk assets. Comparing the current values of gold and Bitcoin to the money supply (M2), neither appears overvalued. This suggests that the predicted storm may not arrive as feared.

Technical Signals: RSI and Rare Oversold Levels

Looking at technical indicators, particularly the Relative Strength Index (RSI), an unusual situation emerges. Bitcoin’s RSI has fallen into oversold territory—an occurrence rarely seen in history. Typically, such RSI levels coincide with market bottoms, where buying opportunities are most valuable. Therefore, instead of waiting for a free fall, investors might be witnessing the start of an unexpected recovery.

2026: Is It Really the ‘Collapse’ Year?

Van de Poppe concludes that no one can definitively predict whether 2026 will be a year of gains or losses. However, current data suggests that stability and positive surprises are more likely than a major crash. If Bitcoin approaches $100,000 again, the bullish trend could accelerate rapidly as currently pessimistic investors gradually return to the market. Ultimately, dismissing the “bear 2026” scenario is not baseless; it’s a logical conclusion based on current market, economic, and technical factors.