On March 6, according to Iranian media Fars News, Iran launched widespread strikes against targets in the United States and Israel.

On the same day, Iran’s United Nations delegation stated that the so-called Iran blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is unfounded. Meanwhile, Israel’s UN ambassador said, "Give us a few more days, and Iran will find it even harder to interfere with ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz."

From the perspective of the crypto market, this series of events depicts a complete evolution path of high-intensity geopolitical conflict, centered around strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities and subsequent retaliations. The escalation of military confrontation between nations, especially the potential risk involving the critical energy corridor of the Strait of Hormuz, will directly impact the pricing logic of global risk assets.

Prediction markets have played a leading indicator role in this process. The probability of a "nuclear facility strike" on Polymarket has risen to 96%, well before official confirmation and military retaliation, indicating that on-chain prediction markets may have higher pricing efficiency for geopolitical risks than traditional intelligence channels. Traders are betting real money on the likelihood of events, and this data serves as an important leading indicator for observing the direction of conflicts.

The evolution pattern of the conflict is also noteworthy. It is not a one-time event but a continuous "action-retaliation" cycle. Israel and the US launch strikes, and Iran responds by attacking US military bases and Israeli government targets. This pattern will continue to generate uncertainty, keeping market volatility high. The contradictory statements from Israeli officials about "not rushing to end the war" and "seeking a quick resolution" reflect this uncertainty, making risk management and position layout extremely challenging.

Most concerning is Iran’s potential intervention in the Strait of Hormuz. Although Iran officially denies plans to blockade, the statements from the Israeli ambassador indicate that all parties are preparing for such a scenario. Any action affecting navigation through the strait will directly impact global energy supplies, causing sharp fluctuations in oil prices, which will then transmit to inflation expectations and macro policy levels.

For market participants, several key points should be monitored: changes in prediction market probabilities as sentiment indicators; the cyclical nature of the conflict implying that volatility will not subside quickly; and most importantly, the security status of energy corridors, which is the real trigger for potential massive shocks in the global markets. In this environment, safe-haven assets and energy hedges will see significantly increased value, while highly leveraged risk positions face enormous tests.

European stock markets closed broadly lower on Thursday, with the German DAX30 index down 1.72%
BlockBeats reports that on March 6, possibly due to the escalating geopolitical tensions, risk aversion continued to spread, and European stock markets mostly declined:

· Germany’s DAX30 closed down 416.98 points, a 1.72% decrease, at 23,799.28;

· UK’s FTSE 100 closed down 154.76 points, a 1.46% decrease, at 10,412.89;

· France’s CAC40 closed down 121.93 points, a 1.49% decrease, at 8,045.80;

· Europe’s STOXX 50 closed down 89.42 points, a 1.52% decrease, at 5,781.50;

· Spain’s IBEX35 closed down 271.33 points, a 1.55% decrease, at 17,219.87;

· Italy’s FTSE MIB closed down 694.38 points, a 1.53% decrease, at 44,642.50.