#全球央行降息预期全线降温 Oil prices soar, reigniting inflation concerns; global central bank rate cut expectations cool across the board

As Middle East conflicts push oil prices higher and raise inflation worries, currency markets on Monday reduced bets on rate cuts by the US, UK, and Eurozone. Swap trading linked to policy meeting dates shows the Federal Reserve's chances of cutting rates three times by 2026 have fallen from nearly 50% last week to 20%. Traders no longer expect the Bank of England to make three rate cuts this year and have lowered the probability of a March rate cut from over 80% to 60%. They also halved the likelihood of a rate cut by the European Central Bank this year, pricing in only 5 basis points of easing.
The two-year yields in the US, UK, and Germany, which are most sensitive to monetary policy changes, have risen more than long-term yields. This reflects a significant jump in inflation indicators driven by Brent crude oil prices hitting their largest increase in four years.
Laura Cooper, Global Investment Strategist and Head of Macro Credit at NewView Investment, said, “The sustained rise in oil prices will have a significant spillover effect on the global economy and inflation trajectory. A more persistent energy pulse could complicate the disinflation process and delay further rate cuts.”