3.4 Afternoon Bitcoin Analysis

Bitcoin rebounded intraday to the 68,316 level but faced resistance, with technical indicators showing clear downward pressure. On the 1-hour chart, the price failed to break above the MA30 moving average, and the short-term moving averages are turning downward, forming resistance. The long upper shadow left by the previous rally and pullback highlights heavy selling pressure above.

Negative news sentiment is resonating, with Middle East geopolitical conflicts escalating and pushing oil prices higher. Federal Reserve officials reiterated their stance against inflation, with over a 97% probability of maintaining interest rates in March. Expectations for rate cuts have been further delayed, and the high-interest-rate environment continues to suppress risk asset valuations. Coupled with the decline in the three major US stock indices and outflows from Bitcoin ETF funds, market risk aversion has increased, with funds favoring traditional safe-haven assets like gold.

Market sentiment and capital flow are bearish, with leverage risks in the derivatives market running high. Short-term rebounds lack support from additional capital, and bullish momentum is waning. Trading suggestion: 68,800-69,300, target 66,800-67,300.