Hormuz Strait and the "Iran Test": Is Bitcoin Moving Closer to the Role of a Safe Haven Asset?

The crisis surrounding the Strait of Hormuz – a shipping route that accounts for about 21% of global oil traffic – is creating a significant test for Bitcoin’s role as a “safe haven” asset.
According to James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares, geopolitical tensions involving Iran are forcing investors to reassess the position of digital assets within the global financial system.
Hormuz Tension: The Risk Is No Longer Just Words
The Strait of Hormuz is vital to the world’s energy supply. The withdrawal of maritime insurance in the area, an unusual increase in oil tanker traffic, and the re-emergence of groups like Hezbollah and Houthi indicate that the market is pricing in real risks, not just media concerns.
Immediate consequences:

• Oil prices rose about 13%
• Gold prices fell 1.8%
• And notably, Bitcoin increased in value amid rising instability
  This runs counter to traditional models where risky assets are usually sold off during crises.
  Bitcoin Is Not Being Sold Off – It’s Being Bought
  History shows that Bitcoin often acts as a “liquidity safe haven” on weekends – when traditional markets are closed, BTC is the only major asset trading continuously.
  However, this time, instead of absorbing selling pressure, Bitcoin has seen capital inflows.
  Some notable fundamental factors:
• MVRV dropped below 1 standard deviation from fair value
• RSI hit 16 – a deeply oversold zone
• Leverage ratio decreased from 33% (October 2025) to 25%, aligning with long-term averages
• An estimated $30 billion worth of assets have been sold by large investors over the past five months, reducing supply pressure
  This suggests that Bitcoin’s correction may have been completed before the Iran shock occurred.
  Reversal in ETF Flows
  After five consecutive weeks of capital withdrawals totaling $4.3 billion, Bitcoin ETF funds have reversed:

• $1 billion inflow last week
• $500 million immediately after the tense weekend
  This data reflects an important reality: investors are not fleeing but are viewing Bitcoin as a hedge against uncertainty.
  Interest Rate and Inflation Dynamics
  The macro environment remains complex:

• US PPI increased by 0.5% in the month
• Core inflation at 0.8%
• Expectations of a rate cut in June fell below 50%
  Rising energy prices due to Iran tensions could push commodity inflation higher, causing the Fed to delay monetary easing. In a high-interest-rate environment, non-yielding assets like Bitcoin may face pressure.
  However, when inflation driven by energy conflicts with the credibility of central banks, the appeal of scarce, non-sovereign assets like Bitcoin increases.
  Systemic Risks and the Sovereign-Free Advantage
  If the Hormuz Strait disruption persists, potential outcomes include:
• Energy price shocks
• Supply chain disruptions
• Fiscal pressures on oil-importing countries
• Diminished confidence in global financial infrastructure
  The memory of Russia’s freezing of about $300 billion in foreign reserves in 2022 remains – a clear example that political risks can directly impact traditional assets.
  In this context, Bitcoin’s core characteristics stand out:
• Decentralized
• Not dependent on national sovereignty
• Limited supply
• Globally tradable 24/7
  Has Bitcoin Passed the Test?
  According to CoinShares, Bitcoin may continue to accumulate with limited short-term downside risk. The normalization of leverage, reduced whale selling, price stability, and $1.5 billion ETF capital inflows amid geopolitical tensions indicate a market structure that has shifted.
  As Butterfill notes:
  “The Iran crisis has not fully proven Bitcoin’s ‘safe haven’ thesis, but it is the most significant real-world test in this cycle – and so far, Bitcoin is passing it.”
  As the world enters a period of heightened energy and geopolitical uncertainty, Bitcoin is no longer just a speculative asset – it is gradually becoming a key variable in the global financial architecture.