#美伊局势影响 The US-Iran situation triggers a major divergence in global assets | Will BTC remain stable at 70,000? Are gold/oil/BTC true safe havens? Will Fed interest rate cuts be held back?

The United States announces a major upcoming attack on Iran, and the geopolitical storm in the Middle East directly shakes the global financial markets: risk assets fluctuate worldwide, traditional safe havens like gold and oil strengthen simultaneously, while Bitcoin rebounds against the trend. Three core issues are now directly in front of all investors👇
1️⃣ BTC rebounds against the trend, is the 70,000 level truly stable?
In the context of geopolitical tensions, BTC briefly surged to touch 70,000. It seems to be diverging independently but is far from stable. On one side, institutional funds are entering the market driven by safe-haven narratives, combined with depleted supply and short-term holders' reluctance to sell, supporting prices at key levels; on the other side, BTC remains a high-volatility risk asset. Sudden escalation of conflict, leverage liquidations, or ETF capital flow reversals could cause prices to lose the 70,000 level again. In the short term, fluctuations are more likely than a definitive breakthrough.
2️⃣ Gold vs. Oil vs. BTC, which is the strongest safe haven right now?
- Gold: Fully embodies safe-haven attributes and inflation hedging. It is the primary choice amid geopolitical conflicts, with the highest capital inflow certainty, minimal volatility, and strong resilience, making it a stable safe haven.
- Oil: Directly benefits from supply disruptions in the Middle East, with the greatest price elasticity. However, it is highly influenced by supply and demand, OPEC+ policies, and Strait navigation expectations, leading to high volatility and risk.
- BTC: Its rebound is driven by sentiment and capital flows. Its safe-haven properties are questioned; in extreme risk scenarios, institutions may sell, making it highly elastic but not a safe shelter.
Conclusion: Currently, gold is the best safe haven, oil offers profit potential, and BTC remains a speculative game.
3️⃣ Will escalation of conflict push inflation higher and hinder Fed rate cuts?
The answer is very likely yes. Crude oil is the main anchor of inflation; sharp increases in oil prices will spread through logistics, chemicals, and consumer sectors, increasing import inflation. The US already has inflation above 2%, and combined with tariff costs, inflation expectations could easily resurface. Yellen and others have warned that the Fed will be more cautious in cutting rates; the likelihood of cuts in March and June continues to decline, with a significantly delayed rate cut schedule and very limited room for easing. The high-interest-rate environment will persist longer.
Every escalation step between the US and Iran is reshaping global asset pricing:
✅ Gold: Still the king of safe havens
✅ Oil: Highly elastic but very volatile
✅ BTC: Fluctuating around 70,000, do not rely on it solely as a safe haven
✅ Fed: Rate cut expectations are cooling, the high-interest-rate cycle is extended
Geopolitical black swans are flying everywhere. Managing positions and embracing certainty are key to navigating volatility.