In the short term, the crypto market trend has returned to the macro mainline, with Middle East tensions and Federal Reserve policies becoming the key variables driving Bitcoin and Ethereum volatility. If geopolitical conflicts escalate, global risk appetite will decline, funds will flow back into the US dollar and US Treasuries, and risk assets will come under pressure. Bitcoin often leads the correction, while Ethereum, with greater elasticity, may experience more significant declines. However, after panic subsides, funds will reallocate assets, and the store of value properties of Bitcoin and the ecological support of Ethereum will typically drive prices to gradually recover, showing a pattern of "initial suppression, followed by rebound."

In comparison, the Federal Reserve's policy mainly determines the trend direction. If inflation eases and rate cut expectations rise, the US dollar will weaken, yields will decline, and improved liquidity will open upward space for BTC. ETH, with stronger momentum for a rebound under rising risk appetite, often benefits more. Conversely, if policies turn hawkish and interest rates stay high, increasing capital costs, both assets are likely to remain volatile or even decline under pressure. Currently, geopolitical risks influence sentiment, and the Federal Reserve's decisions determine the trend; what truly changes the market environment is the shift in liquidity conditions. #美伊局势影响