Macro Conditions for the Bull Market in Commodities:


1. Geopolitical conflicts causing supply shocks
The Strait of Hormuz affects 20% of global oil shipping, 20% of LPG trade, and 9% of aluminum capacity.
2. Ample monetary liquidity
Currently, the Federal Reserve is in a rate-cutting cycle, but the background is insufficient market liquidity. Future monitoring of the Fed's monetary policy is necessary.
3. Rigid growth in new demand
AI computing centers, grid upgrades, and new energy vehicles.
4. Low elasticity of inventories and capacity
Global mining companies' capital expenditures have been shrinking since 2011, coupled with long-term underinvestment and ESG constraints, leading to limited new capacity.
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