【$RIVER Signal】Long - 1H strong breakout, funds driving short squeeze

$RIVER The 1H timeframe is strongly trading above EMA20, just breaking above the previous high of 11.95 with increased volume, creating a new intraday high of 12.147. The 4H timeframe has formed three consecutive bullish candles, with the price breaking out of the recent consolidation range, indicating strong momentum. Although RSI has entered the overbought zone, the short squeeze may continue given stable open interest and moderate funding rates.

🎯Direction: Long (Long)

🎯Entry/Order: 12.00 - 12.10 (Reason: Breakout retest confirms support area, 1H EMA20 dynamic support )

🛑Stop Loss: 11.40 (Reason: Break below the start of the previous large bullish candle and key support level )

🚀Target 1: 12.80 (Reason: Based on recent rally’s 1.382 Fibonacci extension )

🚀Target 2: 13.50 (Reason: Psychological resistance at previous high and 1.618 Fibonacci extension )

🛡Trade Management:

- Position size suggestion: Light position (Reason: Daily increase exceeds 38%, volatility is extremely high, risk is amplified )

- Execution strategy: After price reaches 12.80, reduce position by 50% to lock in profits, and move the remaining stop loss up to entry price of 12.10. If the price strongly breaks through 12.80, hold the remaining position to aim for the second target.

Deep logic: After a 38% intraday surge, open interest remains stable without significant decline, indicating that long positions have not been widely profit-taken, and funds are still in the market. Market depth shows a pile-up of 319K sell orders in the 12.04-12.05 range, but these have been absorbed by buyers. Continued breakout will weaken selling pressure above. Although 1H RSI is high, it has not become dull, and combined with rising volume and price, it indicates a strong breakout. Market logic suggests ‘price rising, consider open interest,’ currently stable OI indicates main force entering or short covering short squeeze logic.

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