The Core Mindset of Short-Term Trading: From "Monitoring Anxiety" to "Probability-Based Victory"

In the short-term trading markets of cryptocurrencies and precious metals, many traders tend to fall into the trap of "monitoring the market every second and blindly following the crowd," ultimately repeatedly stopping out in choppy markets. Based on my practical experience in short-term BTC/ETH trading and swing trading gold (XAUT), the essence of short-term trading is not "predicting price movements," but "controlling probabilities." A clear trading framework is far more important than momentary market intuition.

The first step in short-term trading is to establish a logical cycle of "setting the macro direction and finding micro opportunities." For example, during Federal Reserve interest rate meetings, on the macro level, if the meeting signals a slowdown in rate hikes, it is likely to boost the prices of cryptocurrencies and precious metals—this is the core trend anchor; on the micro level, I don’t rush to enter the market but look for entry points through the volume-price relationship on the 15-minute K-line—when BTC trading volume exceeds key support levels by more than 30%, and the MACD indicator shows a bullish crossover, that is the best time to enter a short-term long position. This combination of "macro + micro" can effectively filter out 80% of invalid trading signals.

Stop-loss and position management are the "lifelines" of short-term trading. Many traders suffer from "small gains, big losses," mainly due to vague stop-loss settings and overly large positions. My practical strategy is to never allocate more than 10% of total funds to a single trade, with stop-loss points strictly anchored at key technical levels—for example, in short-term BTC trading based on the 4-hour moving average, I set the stop-loss 0.5% below the moving average, and never manually loosen the stop-loss due to "hopes of a market reversal." Additionally, profit-taking and reducing positions are key to locking in gains. When profits reach 5%, I close 50% of the position, and use a trailing stop for the remaining position—this way, I don’t miss out on trends and avoid the regret of "turning profits into losses."

Many beginners fall into the trap of "over-reviewing," spending hours every day organizing trading records but never improving. True efficient review focuses on "grabbing key points and finding patterns," not just "keeping a journal." I use spreadsheets to record core information of each trade: entry logic, position size, stop-loss level, profit points, reasons for losses, with special emphasis on analyzing cases where "subjective judgment violated trading rules." For example, last week in ETH trading, I ignored the "overbought signal" and chased longs due to overheated market sentiment, ultimately hitting my stop-loss. This review made me realize: at any time, emotions must never override the trading system.

Short-term trading is not a shortcut to "getting rich overnight," but a practice of "battling oneself." The market is always volatile, and there is no permanently correct trading strategy—only continuously improving trading logic. Our goal is not to make every trade profitable but to achieve long-term positive accumulation through high-probability correct decisions. In the markets of cryptocurrencies and precious metals, maintaining independent thinking and sticking to trading rules are essential to standing firm amid unpredictable market fluctuations.