Japan's birthrate has declined for the tenth consecutive year, and the population crisis is worsening!

Japan’s birthrate has declined for the tenth consecutive year in 2025, further highlighting the country’s increasing demographic pressure and posing a serious challenge to the new government’s policies to address the population crisis.

According to preliminary data released by Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare on Thursday, the number of newborns in Japan in 2025 decreased by 2.1% year-on-year to approximately 706,000. During the same period, the number of deaths in Japan slightly declined by 0.8% to about 1.6 million.

To combat population decline, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is attempting to promote a series of economic incentives, including tax reductions and fertility subsidies. However, these proposals aimed at reducing family childcare costs have not yet been officially implemented.

The ongoing decline in birthrates has intensified concerns about Japan’s long-term economic growth potential, and the government’s shifting focus on population policies has led outside observers to question whether the urgency to reverse the birthrate decline has been deprioritized on the national agenda.

Policy Shift Sparks External Concerns

According to Bloomberg, Sanae Takaichi proposed several incentives before her leadership bid for the Liberal Democratic Party last October, including tax breaks for hiring nannies and domestic helpers, as well as corporate tax cuts for companies establishing internal childcare centers. Additionally, as Japan’s first female Prime Minister, she pledged to introduce national qualifications for childcare workers and improve their wages and working conditions. At last week’s parliamentary opening ceremony, Takaichi stated that the government would ease costs related to pregnancy and childbirth, but these policies have yet to be implemented.

Public and market concerns center on the possibility that the current government’s policy priorities may be shifting. Some believe that, compared to previous administrations, Japan’s current government is now more focused on national security and policies targeting foreigners. Former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida launched a ¥3.6 trillion (approximately $231 billion) comprehensive childcare plan in 2023, calling it an “unprecedented measure to address the declining birthrate,” a stance that was subsequently continued by Shigeru Ishiba.

Under Takaichi’s leadership, child-related policies have been integrated into a broader population agenda that also includes foreigner policies. The Minister responsible for addressing population decline, Hitoshi Kikawada, currently oversees an additional 11 portfolios, including territorial disputes and food safety, raising widespread doubts about whether the birthrate issue has been sidelined.

Historical Data Highlights Long-Term Challenges

Preliminary data released Thursday covers a broad scope, including babies born to foreign residents living in Japan as well as Japanese nationals living abroad.

In contrast, the narrower final data more accurately reflect Japan’s domestic population issues. The final data for 2024, which only counts Japanese residents in Japan, was approximately 686,000, marking a historic low since records began in 1899. The final data for 2025 is typically released in September of this year and is expected to further reveal the true depth of the population decline.

Global Efforts to Boost Fertility

Japan is not alone in its efforts to reverse demographic decline; many major economies worldwide are rolling out various economic incentives.

In South Korea, which is also facing population pressures, data released Wednesday showed that, supported by fertility incentives aimed at reducing childcare costs, the country’s fertility rate in 2025 rose for the second consecutive year, as marriage rates gradually recovered from long-term lows.

Additionally, Bloomberg reports that U.S. President Trump has proposed a $5,000 baby bonus. Meanwhile, China plans to provide an annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan (about $500) for children under three, attempting to alleviate family childcare burdens through direct financial support.

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