February 26, 2026 Cryptocurrency Market Morning Analysis: Oversold Rebound Begins, Focus on Key Resistance Breakthrough

After a deep correction in the previous period, the cryptocurrency market experienced a strong rebound on the morning of February 26. Bitcoin surged nearly 8% in a single day, approaching the $70,000 mark again; Ethereum soared over 13%, temporarily breaking through $2,100. This rebound was driven by multiple factors including technical oversold correction, a rebound in US tech stock sentiment, and Circle’s better-than-expected earnings report. However, the shadow of a nearly 50% retracement from the all-time high remains, with about 45% of circulating Bitcoin still at unrealized losses. The sustainability of the rebound remains to be seen. In terms of operations, investors are advised to differentiate between long-term and short-term strategies, with a focus on whether Bitcoin can effectively break through the key psychological level of $70,000.

1. Market Overview: Strong Rebound Recovers Lost Ground

As of the morning of February 26, major cryptocurrencies generally rose sharply:

Bitcoin (BTC): Latest quote around $68,300, up 6.68% in 24 hours, with a daily high of $69,550. This marks a strong V-shaped rebound after consecutive declines.

Ethereum (ETH): Price broke through $2,000, reaching above $2,100 at one point, with a 24-hour increase of over 13%.

Market Sentiment: Cryptocurrency concept stocks surged in tandem, with stablecoin issuer Circle’s stock soaring 35% on earnings beat, and Coinbase up over 13%. The Fear & Greed Index quickly rebounded from extreme fear territory.

2. Core Driving Factors Analysis

Strong technical oversold rebound demand: The current decline caused Bitcoin’s weekly relative strength index (RSI) to drop to 25.71, entering an extremely oversold zone in historical terms, creating strong technical repair needs. The bullish divergence signal on the 4-hour chart became the direct technical trigger for the rebound.

Macroeconomic risk appetite stage-wise warming: US tech stocks rebounded consecutively, with the Nasdaq rising over 1% in two days, Nvidia’s earnings exceeding expectations, boosting overall risk asset sentiment. As an asset highly correlated with tech stocks, Bitcoin benefited from this.

Industry-specific positive catalysts: Stablecoin giant Circle announced its Q4 earnings exceeding market expectations, with a significant increase in USDC circulation, demonstrating the resilience of stablecoins as infrastructure and boosting market confidence.

Partial digestion of previous negative sentiment: Although uncertainties remain around US President Trump’s tariff policies, the market has largely priced in these expectations. The omission of digital assets in his State of the Union address was also seen as short-term negative sentiment being exhausted.

3. Key Technical Levels and Market Outlook

Key price levels:

Bitcoin: Short-term key support at $65,000-$66,000 (200-week moving average and previous dense trading zone); primary resistance above at $69,000-$70,000 (downtrend channel upper boundary and psychological level). Breaking through $70,000 is crucial to reversing the short-term downtrend.

Ethereum: Needs to stabilize above the $2,000 integer level, with resistance at $2,100-$2,150.

Market scenario forecast:

Optimistic scenario (lower probability): Bitcoin breaks through and stabilizes above $70,000 with increased volume, attracting follow-up buying, targeting $75,000-$80,000. Conditions include the Federal Reserve signaling clear easing and sustained large inflows into spot ETFs.

Neutral scenario (higher probability): Bitcoin fluctuates widely between $65,000 and $70,000, with intense battles between bulls and bears, entering a phase of bottoming with time to gain space.

Pessimistic scenario (to be cautious): Weak rebound, Bitcoin falls back below $65,000 support, possibly testing $60,000 or lower. Conditions include macroeconomic negative shocks or new black swan events.

4. Operational Strategy Recommendations

General principle: The current market is a technical rebound after a sharp decline, and a trend reversal has yet to be confirmed. Caution should be exercised, with strict control over positions and risks.

For short-term traders:

Bullish strategy: If the price retraces to support zones around $66,000-$66,500 and shows stabilization signals (such as long lower shadows on 4-hour candles), consider light long positions with stop-loss below $65,000 and target $69,000-$70,000.

Bearish strategy: If the price rebounds to the strong resistance zone of $69,500-$70,000 and shows signs of stagnation (such as long upper shadows or shrinking volume), consider light short positions with stop-loss above $70,500 and target $68,000.

Key action points: Pay close attention to the battle around the $70,000 mark. A breakout could open short-term upside space, while resistance could lead to more sideways movement.

For medium- and long-term investors:

Dollar-cost averaging: If you believe in the long-term value of cryptocurrencies, consider deploying in batches and small amounts within the $65,000-$68,000 range, extending the accumulation period and smoothing costs. Avoid heavy one-time bottom-fishing.

Right-side confirmation: A more prudent approach is to wait for further trend clarity. Set a clear right-side signal, such as Bitcoin’s daily closing above $72,000 (breaking above the previous consolidation upper boundary), before increasing positions.

Position and risk management:

Regardless of the strategy, individual trade positions should not exceed 5% of total funds.

Set strict stop-losses: Short-term trades should have stop-loss levels 1-2% outside key support/resistance levels.

Keep sufficient stablecoins as flexible funds to respond to potential market dips and seize better entry opportunities.

5. Important Risk Warnings

Uncertain trend risk: The current rebound cannot confirm a trend reversal. Bitcoin has retraced nearly 50% from its October 2025 all-time high, with heavy overhead supply, and the rebound process may be volatile.

Macroeconomic policy risk: Monetary policies of major economies (especially the Federal Reserve), regulatory developments, and geopolitical events can impact high-risk assets at any time.

High volatility risk: Cryptocurrencies are inherently volatile, with daily fluctuations exceeding 5% being common. High leverage trading can easily lead to liquidation. The past 24 hours saw many contracts liquidated, so caution is advised.

Compliance risk: Cryptocurrency trading and speculation are explicitly prohibited within China, and related activities are not protected by law. Participants face both financial and legal risks.

Conclusion: The strong rebound on February 26 injected a boost into the market after a prolonged decline, but it is premature to declare the end of the bear market. Investors should view this rebound rationally as a process of market sentiment recovery and technical correction. It is advisable to adopt a “cautiously optimistic, step-by-step” approach, focus on key level breakthroughs, manage positions carefully, and guard against the risk of market retests.