SUI On-Chain Ecosystem Activation Signal… Technical Outlook of the Upward Trend

Recently, SUI has been rallying upward, attracting market attention. Not only is the price rising, but on-chain indicators are also showing positive signals. On-chain metrics such as trading volume, total value locked (TVL), and open interest (OI) in futures markets are all improving simultaneously, indicating an expansion of market participation.

The Reality of Market Participation Signals from On-Chain Indicators

The recent bullish trend of SUI is supported by a genuine increase in market engagement. Signals of activity are being detected across the entire on-chain ecosystem.

Trading volume has shown a consistent upward trend. According to Santiment, the recent daily trading volume has reached around $960 million, hitting a two-month high. Importantly, this increase in trading volume has been gradual since early December, not just a temporary spike. Rising trading volume improves market liquidity and reduces the likelihood of a sharp reversal in the upward trend.

On-chain staking assets are also expanding. According to DefiLlama, SUI’s total value locked (TVL) has steadily increased since late December, surpassing $1 billion. The growth in TVL indicates actual funds are flowing into SUI-based protocols, suggesting the ecosystem is gaining vitality. Investors are not only aiming for price gains but are actively utilizing platform-based services.

Participation in derivatives markets is also increasing. According to CoinGlass, the open interest (OI) in SUI futures recently surpassed $900 million, reaching its highest level since October. An increase in OI signifies new capital inflows and can serve as a short-term bullish catalyst. This suggests that SUI’s rally is not merely a technical rebound or a result of thin liquidity, but rather a reflection of on-chain ecosystem activity and growing derivatives market participation.

Technical Perspective on the Uptrend and Risk Points

From a chart perspective, SUI has maintained its bullish stance after breaking out of a descending wedge pattern at the end of December. It has gained over 35% since the beginning of the month and continues to show strength at high levels.

The first target for an upward move is set at $2.34 (weekly resistance). A breakout accompanied by increased volume at this level could reinforce a new narrative that “the recent low zone is now in the past.” However, this interpretation will only be confirmed after a confirmed breakout.

Caution is needed regarding momentum. The daily RSI has risen to around 73, entering overbought territory. While this indicates strong upward momentum, it also serves as a warning that “entering new positions at this point carries higher risk.” The MACD has formed a golden cross, with the green histogram expanding, indicating that technical strength remains intact.

A correction scenario should also be considered. If a pullback occurs, the 50-day moving average (50-day EMA, around $1.66) is expected to act as a key support level. However, if the overall market remains healthy, deep corrections usually do not extend below this level, and a rebound is likely from intermediate support. Conversely, if a risk-off sentiment spreads across the market, the situation could change.

In summary, the improvement in on-chain indicators and technical strength support a short-term upward trend for SUI. Nonetheless, entering overbought conditions warrants caution. The continuation of on-chain ecosystem activity and the breakout of technical resistance levels will be critical factors shaping future movements.