The Psychological Warfare Behind Tariffs: The Market Fears Not the Tax, but Uncertainty

When Donald Trump announced new tariff policies, the market's biggest concern wasn't the "tariff rate," but "what's next." Uncertainty is the true nemesis of the capital markets.
Economically speaking, companies dislike unpredictable costs the most. If tariffs are fixed and rules are clear, businesses can plan accordingly; if policies change frequently, they can only wait and see. Waiting means investment slows down, and slower investment leads to slower growth. Therefore, tariffs are like typhoons in weather forecasts—they don't just impact that day but influence the preparation period before and after.
Psychologically, this is also crucial. Hardline policies reinforce the "confrontation narrative," naturally reducing market risk appetite. Capital flows into defensive assets, and emerging markets come under pressure. Even if the actual impact of tariffs is limited, as long as sentiment is amplified, volatility will also increase.
But from another perspective, tariffs are often used as bargaining chips. First, raise the volume, then seek compromise, and finally reach an agreement. If the story develops in this direction, the market will quickly recover. The memory of capital markets is short; as soon as risks are alleviated, prices can rise faster than anyone else.
So, instead of asking "Are tariffs good or bad," it's better to ask "How long will they last, and how strong will they be?" In the game of policy negotiations, tariffs are a chess piece, not the final move. What truly determines the trend are the underlying strategies and timing. #特朗普宣布新关税政策