Spring Festival Blockbuster "Opening Black," 70 million fewer movie tickets sold

No surprises, the 2026 Chinese New Year film season faces a “bad start.”

Among several top contenders, only Han Han’s “Flying Past Life 3” became a hit, while “The Dagger Man,” “Silent Chilling,” and “Bears Yearly” failed to meet expectations, with the others quickly becoming casualties.

From the first to the seventh day of the lunar New Year (February 17–23), China’s total movie-viewing attendance was 119 million, down 37% year-on-year, with 70 million fewer tickets sold over seven days. Total box office revenue dropped by 40% to 5.698 billion yuan.

The Spring Festival box office was virtually nonexistent, and the film market continues to shrink. The fundamental reason is that the positive cycle supporting the market has been broken: only quality products can attract audiences; only industry profits encourage further investment; only long-term audience trust in the film market and theater system can sustain industry stability.

Under internal and external pressures, how many years will it take for the film market to recover?

70 Million Fewer Tickets Sold

As the lineup for the 2026 Spring Festival films was gradually confirmed, discussions before the holiday waned, and everyone seemed to have anticipated this outcome.

From February 17 to 23, the Chinese film market saw 119 million viewers, a 37% decline from the same period last year (January 29–February 4), with 70 million fewer tickets sold; total box office was 5.698 billion yuan, about 40% lower than last year’s 9.488 billion yuan.

Since the introduction of the New Year and Spring Festival releases, such a decline has been unprecedented; total attendance and box office are even lower than during some of the more unusual six-day Spring Festival periods in previous years.

If 2025’s Spring Festival was a miracle because of “Nezha 2,” with “Detective Chinatown 1900” surpassing 2 billion yuan in 7 days, and “Fengshen Part Two” hitting 1 billion in 7 days, these blockbusters still carried the weight of classic IPs.

But the 2026 Spring Festival is a systemic collapse. Without any absolute top-tier films, even mid-tier strength is severely lacking.

Han Han’s classic IP “Flying Past Life 3” continues in its comfort zone, earning 2.927 billion yuan in 7 days, with Maoyan’s professional forecast predicting a total mainland box office of 4.359 billion yuan.

However, behind Zhang Chi, there is no one else. Zhang Yimou’s new film “Silent Chilling” earned 867 million yuan during the holiday, with an estimated total of 1.243 billion yuan; the highly anticipated “Dagger Man” opened with 806 million yuan in 7 days, with a forecasted total of 1.3 billion yuan.

What surprised the market most was that even “Bears Come Out” has become dull. As China’s longest-running IP for the New Year, the “Bears” series has been a steady presence since 2014, with 11 films grossing nearly 10 billion yuan over more than a decade. But after “Bears: Reverse Time” earned 1.984 billion yuan in 2024, “Reboot Future” in 2025 failed to break 1 billion, and this year’s “Year of the Bears” grossed 713 million yuan during the holiday, with an estimated total around 1 billion.

The remaining few films, such as the comedy “Night King,” Jackie Chan’s “Panda Plan,” and the sci-fi “Galaxy Dreams,” were all casualties in the shrinking market.

The Spring Festival box office has increasingly become a market barometer. In 2025, with “Nezha 2” as a foundation, the annual total box office hit a high point of 500 billion yuan.

Initially, “Zootopia 2” led the overall holiday boost at the end of 2025. Unexpectedly, the more lucrative Spring Festival box office started off slow and continued to decline.

Therefore, the total box office for 2026 need not be overly optimistic; the market should lower expectations for the industry and key companies. Yesterday, the A-share market opened with Wanda Film, China Film, Bona Film Group, and other media stocks hitting the limit down.

Looking ahead, we can start to anticipate the 2027 Spring Festival. “The Wandering Earth 3” will premiere on New Year’s Day, and Zhang Yimou will continue his highest-grossing “Man Jiang Hong” series, possibly leading a comeback for the Spring Festival and the entire film industry.

The Positive Cycle Is Broken

The decline of the film market is straightforward—insufficient product appeal.

This is a market that relies heavily on immediate feedback and industry cycles. Every time audiences enter theaters and share reviews on social media, it almost directly influences market trends.

During the preview stage, factors like theater chains and traffic stars can cause some films’ performance to deviate from their actual quality.

But once officially released, audiences vote with their feet. Higher ratings and increased attendance lead theaters to adjust screening schedules upward, attracting more viewers. The battle during the New Year period may seem to last a month or two with various strategies, but in reality, the outcome is often decided within a few days, establishing the basic trend.

Since 2018, the turbulence in the film market stems from the underlying logic being disrupted by industry adjustments and special circumstances.

Normally, the cycle is: invest in quality content → attract audiences → industry profits → reinvest in more quality content, creating a positive feedback loop.

Currently, the overall market is declining, capital cannot make money, and there is little willingness to systematically support quality projects, making it difficult to break this vicious cycle.

After making billions with “Nezha 2” in 2025, Lumière Group did not reinvest in more film projects but instead bought an office building in Beijing, reflecting a somewhat pessimistic outlook.

Limited resources are funneled into large IP projects with clearer output ratios, leading to a proliferation of sequels and a lack of innovative projects, further unbalancing the market.

Even Han Han, the box office king of the Spring Festival, may have been shadowed by the failure of “Four Seas.” Besides the “Flying Past Life” series, he has few other successful IPs. As a result, long-planned projects like “Triple Doors” and “Sky Manufacturing” have been delayed for years without release.

Expectations for the 2027 Spring Festival are mainly based on hopes for “The Wandering Earth 3” and “Man Jiang Hong” IPs, rather than confidence in the schedule itself.

Behind the disruption of the normal industry cycle, there is a hidden power shift. The influence of the film market is moving away from veteran producers like Zhang Yimou and Feng Xiaogang, and old capital players like Huayi Brothers and Bona Film, toward figures like Han Han, Chen Sicheng, and Coli Ming, along with their companies. This shift causes fragmentation and tug-of-war, which may delay the market’s return to normal.

External factors are also eroding the market’s influence. In just a few years, competitors to film—TV dramas, variety shows, short videos, and short dramas—have emerged.

This shift is not driven by artistic considerations but by a straightforward competition for long-term viewer attention and short-term purchasing power.

By 2025, the short drama market surpassed the total box office of films, marking a historic turning point. Once this trend begins, it’s hard to reverse.

More concerning for the industry is that once audiences become disappointed with movies, they tend to stay away from theaters. Movie tickets costing 40–50 yuan are less appealing than the “free” feeling of short dramas.

Therefore, the film industry is already seeking to transform its business model—shifting from film development to IP operation, using movies as incubators for IP, and moving revenue streams from short-term box office to long-term IP derivatives.

However, Disney didn’t build its IP empire overnight. The value of IP depends on long-term audience familiarity with the characters. This path has always existed but is difficult to fully realize.

In “Flying Past Life 3,” Han Han incorporated current trends like AI and autonomous driving. The film’s ending shows traditional racing technology triumphing over tech-enhanced racing.

But in reality, the entertainment mode of movies faces unprecedented, multi-layered challenges from both inside and outside, making victory increasingly elusive.

Source: Zebra Consumption

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