Trump's tariff failures, gold surges, why is Bitcoin falling behind?

The U.S. political arena and global financial markets have just experienced a fierce “earthquake.” Over this past weekend, three major events nearly triggered simultaneously: Trump’s proud tariff policy was directly halted by the Supreme Court, with over $100 billion in taxes facing refunds; war clouds gathered over the Persian Gulf, with U.S. aircraft carrier battle groups on high alert; and Bitcoin, which was supposed to serve as “digital gold” for risk hedging, unexpectedly plummeted, forming a “trumpet” shape alongside soaring physical gold prices.

These series of abnormal signals are revealing a profound truth to global investors: when a real storm hits, money only recognizes the oldest sense of security.

1. Billion-dollar tariff policy “fails,” Trump rushes to patch it overnight

● On February 20, for Trump, who wields the “trade big stick,” it was undoubtedly an embarrassing " Waterloo day." The U.S. Supreme Court issued a landmark ruling with a 6-3 decision, ruling that the Trump administration’s previous use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose large-scale tariffs was beyond authority and illegal.

● This is no small sum. According to the ruling, tariffs levied under nine executive orders signed since February 2025 based on that law will no longer be valid, meaning U.S. Customs must cease collecting related taxes and face the awkward situation of refunding over $100 billion to companies.

○ The White House tried to downplay the impact publicly, but actions speak louder than words—U.S. Customs and Border Protection under the Department of Homeland Security issued a notice overnight, officially stopping the illegal tariffs from February 24.

● However, Trump was apparently unwilling to accept defeat. On the same day as the ruling, he quickly signed a new executive order attempting to “patch” the issue under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, announcing a temporary 10% import surcharge on global goods, and soon on social media, he indicated plans to raise the rate to 15%.

● But this move was more like political “tightrope walking.” Under Section 122, this new tariff can only last up to 150 days unless Congress approves an extension.

○ The market is well aware: this is merely a temporary “band-aid,” and the uncertainty of U.S. trade policy is further amplified. As CICC Securities Research Institute pointed out, the rejection of the IEEPA law short-term benefits risk assets theoretically but also increases global trade chaos.

2. Aircraft carriers and negotiations: U.S.-Iran tensions ignite the gold “powder keg”

If tariffs only caused confusion in the markets, then the rapidly escalating U.S.-Iran confrontation in the Middle East directly ignited risk aversion.

● Just as expectations for a new round of U.S.-Iran negotiations in Geneva on February 26 were building, Washington was preparing for “two hands.” On one side, the president’s special envoy and Trump’s son-in-law Kushner prepared to attend negotiations; on the other, the U.S. Navy’s largest Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier battle group had arrived at a key Eastern Mediterranean base, with multiple U.S. aircraft landing in Israel, and the State Department issued a rare high-level warning urging non-emergency personnel in Lebanon to evacuate.

● According to insiders, Trump himself was inclined to consider a “preemptive strike” on Iran, though this plan was strongly questioned by the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who believed it could trigger a prolonged conflict.

● This extreme pressure of negotiation and firepower made the market smell a strong gunpowder scent. Iran responded firmly, stating any attack would be considered aggression. Against this tense backdrop, gold, as the ultimate safe-haven asset, suddenly surged.

● On the 23rd, April gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange jumped $117.9, breaking through the $5,200 per ounce mark, closing at $5,247.9, up 2.3%. UBS analysts even boldly predicted that by June, gold could rise another $1,000. The market’s real-money vote shows: in the face of potentially uncontrollable geopolitical risks, only physical precious metals are the true “Noah’s Ark.”

3. Bitcoin falls behind: the myth of “digital gold” shattered?

● However, the most heartbreaking story for crypto believers is also unfolding. Logically, with a weakening dollar, policy chaos, and rising geopolitical war risks, this should be Bitcoin’s moment to shine as “digital gold.” But reality is a bloody dissonance.

● On the same day that gold soared past $5,200, Bitcoin plunged sharply, temporarily losing the $65,000 level, with a low of $64,232.8, a decline of over 4.4% in 24 hours.

● The entire crypto market was in distress, with over 130,000 liquidation events and total liquidations reaching $463 million.

● Why? Liu Jin, a professor at Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business, analyzed sharply: although Bitcoin is called “digital gold,” its price trend differs significantly from gold and is highly correlated with the Nasdaq index, and should be viewed as a tech asset. The previous surge was mainly based on expectations of favorable policies after Trump’s election, but since he did not implement strong policies after taking office, the anticipated rally was disappointed, leading to a sharp correction.

● CryptoQuant traders are even more pessimistic, believing Bitcoin has entered a bear market, and predicting that if the bear market turns into a “winter,” prices could further halve to $31,000. When real war risks and geopolitical turmoil arrive, funds prefer tangible assets with a long history—physical gold. The narrative of “digital gold” appears particularly pale in the face of this genuine crisis.

4. Rebuilding risk hedging logic: money only trusts “hard assets”

If we piece these events together, a clear logic of current global capital flows emerges: extreme risk aversion, with funds abandoning “stories” and flocking to “physical assets.”

● The chaos of Trump’s tariff policies, combined with the sword of Damocles hanging over U.S.-Iran conflict, has created a classic “Risk-Off” environment. But this time, money did not flow into the previously popular Bitcoin, nor entirely into the dollar (which weakened after the news), but instead surged into traditional assets like gold and silver.

● Silver even outperformed gold that day, rising 4.06% to close at $88 per ounce. This reflects the market’s real choice amid concerns over inflation and geopolitical risks. Even Trump’s hurriedly announced 15% new tariffs only added fuel to the fire—because they not only failed to solve fiscal issues but also heightened fears of stagflation in the U.S. economy.

● From the dramatic reversal of the billion-dollar tariff policy, to the shadow of Tomahawk cruise missiles over the Persian Gulf, to the rise and fall of gold and Bitcoin, this early 2026 blockbuster has provided all investors with a vivid risk education lesson:

● In the face of real storms, bubble stories are most likely to burst. Only those “hard assets” that have survived thousands of years of human civilization cycles remain the final safe haven. When Trump’s executive order was overturned by the Supreme Court, and the carrier battle group arrived at the front lines, the market’s most honest response was—“the safe-haven triangle” remains the dollar, U.S. bonds, and gold, while Bitcoin can only temporarily sit on the sidelines of tech stocks.