The four major variables resonating during the Spring Festival holiday: which are the positive catalysts for A-shares?

The Spring Festival holiday is coming to an end, and during the break, the global markets experienced several major events.

The four key events impacting the market include: the Trump tariff controversy, CCTV’s “Robot + AI Technology Spring Gala,” the yuan’s strong appreciation to the 6.89 range, and escalating tensions in the Middle East. Additionally, industry highlights such as “the total box office for the 2026 Spring Festival film season surpassing 5 billion yuan” will also serve as positive catalysts for related A-share sectors.

Major market-moving variables have attracted high attention from sell-side research institutions. Data from Jinmen APP shows that from February 22 to March 1, a total of 25 sell-side research strategy roadshow meetings were held, covering 14 securities firms, including Orient Securities, Tianfeng Securities, Guolian Minsheng Securities, Shenwan Hongyuan, Industrial Securities, Eastmoney, Galaxy Securities, China Merchants Securities, Huatai Securities, Zhongtai Securities, CITIC Securities, Caitong Securities, Changjiang Securities, and Guohai Securities. Among them, Changjiang Securities conducted as many as 9 strategy research meetings, accounting for 36% of all roadshows.

Trump Tariff Controversy: Policy Fluctuations Increase Market Uncertainty

During the holiday, the US tariff policy saw intensive adjustments, with the Trump tariff controversy experiencing ups and downs.

On February 20, U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Trump’s tariffs imposed under the IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act) were unconstitutional.

On the same day, Trump signed an executive order citing Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, introducing a temporary 10% import tariff as an alternative measure, effective February 24 Eastern Time. The order also clarified certain exemptions, including key minerals, energy products, some agricultural products, and medicines.

On February 21, Trump further stated plans to raise this additional tariff rate from 10% to 15%, though the specifics are still pending formal documentation.

Securities firms have provided clear interpretations of these adjustments’ impact on China.

Ruo Zhiheng, Chief Economist and Director of Research at Yuekai Securities, stated in a report that the average tariff rate on China might temporarily decrease by 5 percentage points, with trade negotiations remaining a long-term tug-of-war. For China, the key is to continuously strengthen its economic fundamentals and enhance technological自主创新能力, maintaining strategic resolve amid complex international changes to effectively reduce external uncertainties and gain an advantage in the long-term US-China trade tug-of-war.

Huatai Securities’ Chief Macroeconomist Yi Huan provided more specific estimates: China’s tariffs against other countries could decrease by 34 percentage points; if the US further raises tariffs on the top 10 deficit sources to 15%, China’s tariffs could decrease by 29 percentage points. Looking ahead, US tariff policies remain uncertain—there is a possibility that Trump’s administration could use Section 338 or conduct further investigations under Sections 301 and 201 to impose additional tariffs. Regarding China, tariffs may become clearer after Trump’s planned visit to China in late March or early April.

Yi Huan believes the Trump tariff controversy will not end here; future policy changes are still possible, and mechanisms for tariff refunds and their scale remain unresolved.

Spring Gala Catalyst: Humanoid Robots Industry Reaches Attention Peak

At the 2026 CCTV Spring Festival Gala, multiple domestically produced humanoid robots made stunning appearances, showcasing the technical strength of China’s humanoid robot field through diverse performances. The related enthusiasm quickly spread to the capital markets. On February 20, related stocks in Hong Kong’s market surged ahead of the event, reflecting industry optimism.

Guotai Haitong Research noted that the Spring Gala significantly catalyzed the humanoid robot industry, with continued high industry attention. As industrialization approaches, core technologies and supporting supply chains are steadily improving.

Everbright Securities further analyzed that several robot-related programs at the Gala demonstrated significant advancements in high-precision motion control, deep development of embodied large models, and bionic interaction capabilities of humanoid robots. Mass production of humanoid robots is expected to accelerate in 2026, supported by a series of targeted and small-batch orders within the industry chain, presenting investment opportunities in leading stocks. The continuous AI application boost during the Spring Festival is expected to sustain demand for AI computing power, with rapid growth in liquid cooling penetration. As chip power consumption increases, microchannel cold plates further enhance value; AI servers are advancing to higher levels, with ongoing evolution in advanced packaging.

Yuan Exchange Rate: Mainly Passive Appreciation, Short-term Upside Potential Remains

In the currency market, the yuan appreciated strongly during the holiday. On February 21, offshore RMB (CNH) against the US dollar was quoted at 6.8978, up 24 points from the previous New York close, with trading within 6.9065-6.8960, officially entering the 6.89 range.

Market consensus holds that yuan appreciation will provide positive support to the stock, bond, and forex markets, further highlighting the value of Chinese assets.

Regarding the drivers of appreciation, Caitong Securities’ research report clearly states that the yuan’s rise is mainly due to a weak US dollar, not a strong yuan. This round of appreciation is passive, with the weakening dollar being the core reason. Additionally, the concentrated release of foreign exchange settlement demand after September 2025 has accelerated the yuan’s appreciation.

Caitong Securities estimates that the extreme value of USD/CNY could reach around 6.8. Under a baseline scenario of a weakening dollar, yuan appreciation is a long-term certainty. Projections suggest that by 2026, USD/CNY could reach as low as 6.8. However, trading behaviors driven by corporate unhedged positions may push USD/CNY below this level. Although the PBOC’s tolerance for exchange rate flexibility has increased, it will not allow the yuan to appreciate unilaterally and rapidly.

Middle East Tensions: Geopolitical Risks Boost Safe-Haven Asset Demand

Besides the above three major news items, new developments in Middle East tensions during the Spring Festival have become short-term uncertainties affecting the markets. During the holiday, US military naval and air forces continued to gather in the Middle East, exerting pressure on Iran to advance US-Iran negotiations, escalating geopolitical tensions and directly driving international oil prices higher.

In the capital markets, Hong Kong-listed China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) rose 3.7% on February 20, reflecting the positive impact of rising oil prices in advance.

Market views generally believe that Middle East tensions are unlikely to subside in the short term. If US-Iran negotiations do not progress as expected, geopolitical risks could further escalate, favoring safe-haven assets like gold and energy sectors such as oil, which may see short-term gains.

Sell-Side Outlook: Long-term Confidence in “Systematic Slow Bull”

Based on the above holiday news, multiple securities firms have provided clear outlooks on the post-holiday A-share market and allocation strategies, generally adopting a view of “short-term slight volatility with long-term cautious optimism,” and are broadly optimistic about a “systematic slow bull” opportunity.

Tianfeng Securities’ research report suggests that the pursuit of the equity sector 2.0 is challenging and prone to setbacks. It expects policy continuity and stability, with increased flexibility and predictability, focusing on “Four Stabilizations.” It emphasizes gold and highlights convertible bonds in bonds.

Huajin Securities, through historical analysis, indicates that A-shares are likely to rise after the holiday. The spring market may continue, with A-shares showing moderate strength. Technology growth and cyclical sectors may outperform, and it recommends continuing to allocate to these sectors on dips.

Fangzheng Securities’ research from a fundamental perspective notes that with ongoing fiscal and industrial support in emerging and future industries, coupled with strong Spring Festival consumption and accelerated infrastructure projects at the start of the “14th Five-Year Plan,” the market’s fundamentals are supported. Profit growth for listed companies in 2026 is expected to improve significantly. Future allocations should focus on the “14th Five-Year Plan” strategic priorities (new industries, future industries), with moderate overweighting of pro-cyclical assets to balance volatility.

Industrial Securities offers a technical outlook, maintaining a cautious but optimistic timing model. Specifically, the model indicates a cautious optimistic signal for the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, with overall upward probability at a reasonable level. The model also maintains a cautious signal for the CSI 300. Overall, the market is viewed as cautiously optimistic.

Zhejiang Securities’ Chief Global Strategist Liao Jingchi provides a more specific short-term outlook, estimating a low probability of trend-based opportunities at market open post-holiday. The main trend is likely to be moderate strength oscillation, with some opportunities in sectors like AI applications and robotics linked to the Spring Festival Gala. From a quarterly perspective, the “systematic slow bull” remains favorable.

In terms of allocation, based on the judgment of “mixed long and short, moderate strength oscillation, hold and observe,” Liao Jingchi recommends short-term cautious positioning, waiting for opportunities, and maintaining a “systematic slow bull” mindset for medium-term holdings. Sector-wise, focus on relatively low-valued securities, building materials, banks, and in the short term, AI applications and robotics. For individual stocks, prioritize those with lagging gains since the “924 market” and potential for catch-up, especially those above the annual moving average.

Additionally, the explosive box office during the Spring Festival has become a highlight for securities firms. As of 6 pm on February 22, the total box office (including pre-sales) for the 2026 Spring Festival season exceeded 5 billion yuan, with “Flying Past Life 3” leading in revenue, benefiting related listed film companies. Companies involved in production or distribution of Spring Festival films are expected to see short-term positive support.

Many securities firms note that the steady performance of Spring Festival box office highlights the recovery trend of the film industry, recommending focus on high-quality core producers, distributors, and leading cinema chains.

(Article source: Cailian Press)