Industrial Bank's Director Lu Zhengwei: A-shares market has shifted from expectation-driven to fundamentals verification

CryptocurrencySniper · 2026-02-24T01:43:27+00:00

In 2026, major global economies will shift their monetary policies from easing to tightening, impacting stock and bond markets. The Federal Reserve will face liquidity issues and find it difficult to implement balance sheet reduction. The A-share market will focus on fundamentals, combined with defensive investments, and pay attention to industries like artificial intelligence. The gold bull market, although adjusted, still has upward potential in the future.

CryptocurrencySniper

2026-02-24 01:43:27

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In 2026, major overseas economies will shift from an easing to a tightening of monetary policy.

Under fiscal stimulus, economies such as the US and Europe are expected to enter the third inventory cycle of demand recovery. If commodity prices rise unexpectedly and intensify inflationary pressures, the market may temporarily anticipate rate hikes through trading. The incoming Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell supports a combination of rate cuts and balance sheet reduction, but considering debt and liquidity issues, implementing balance sheet reduction is currently difficult. Forcing such measures could put pressure on US stocks and global risk assets.

Earlier this year, expectations of monetary tightening began to pressure tech stocks and caused sharp fluctuations in commodities, including precious metals. Meanwhile, global debt issues continue to weigh on long-term and ultra-long-term bonds. Japan’s ongoing rate hikes have led to rising Japanese government bond yields: on one hand, spilling over into European and American bond markets; on the other, potentially reigniting carry trades at some point, causing risk assets to retreat. Before substantial rate hikes occur, foreign currency bond yield strategies remain valid, but investors might shift low-yield assets during rate decline phases or increase hedging ratios.

Regarding A-shares, the market’s operational logic has shifted from expectation-driven to fundamentals-based validation. A balanced, defensive, and resilient allocation framework can be constructed, with dividend-yielding, low-volatility income assets serving as core holdings. Their stable cash flows help smooth volatility and maintain a good holding mindset during short-term market adjustments. Based on this, attention can be given to the performance-driven mainline representing future industry directions—artificial intelligence. The AI industry chain has already demonstrated significant competitive advantages, with related sectors’ profitability accelerating and growth momentum remaining strong.

Additionally, gold remains in a bull market that began in 2019. However, the sharp correction following the irrational rapid rise at the start of the year has ended the fifth wave of upward movement. It will take some time for a consolidation and correction before the sixth wave of gains can begin.

(Source: Securities Times)

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