Refuel in advance! The prices of refined oil may increase for the third consecutive time

The new round of domestic refined oil price adjustments will begin at 24:00 on February 24. According to comprehensive institutional views, domestic refined oil prices are expected to “rise for the third consecutive time.”

Zhuochuang Information’s refined oil analyst Yu Yaxin told China News Agency that since this pricing cycle began, international crude oil has generally shown a slightly strong volatile trend, with the average crude oil price increasing month-on-month. As a result, the domestic reference crude oil change rate has continued to fluctuate in positive territory. According to Zhuochuang Information’s calculations, as of the close on February 13, the reference crude oil change rate on the ninth trading day was 2.90%, and it is expected that gasoline and diesel prices will increase by 130 yuan per ton.

According to calculations by Jinjianchuang, as of the ninth trading day on February 14, the average price of the reference crude oil varieties was $66.04 per barrel, with a change rate of 2.41%, corresponding to an increase of 115 yuan per ton in domestic gasoline and diesel retail prices.

Yu Yaxin also mentioned that although the Spring Festival holiday period is not counted within the 10 working days of this pricing cycle, the trend of crude oil will continue to influence the crude oil change rate.

Wind data shows that during the Spring Festival holiday, the international crude oil price center remained strong. According to Huaxi Securities’ calculations, the crude oil price during the Spring Festival week increased by nearly 6% (from February 13 to February 20).

China News Agency notes that this year, domestic oil prices have experienced three rounds of adjustment windows, with the overall pattern being “two increases and one pause.” If this round of price adjustment increases as expected, the 2026 adjustment pattern will become “three increases and one pause,” marking the third consecutive price increase of the year.

According to the “ten working days” principle, the next retail refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on March 9, 2026.

Looking ahead, Dongwu Securities reports that crude oil prices have shown a significant rebound since 2026. In the short term, the most critical variable affecting oil prices is geopolitical risk. As the US and Iran continue to send strong signals, geopolitical risk premiums are rising, driving oil prices higher.

(Source: China News Agency)