Spring Festival Global Market Fluctuations Summary: Which A-share sectors will lead the rally?

The Spring Festival holiday has ended, and the A-share market is about to enter the post-holiday trading window. However, during the 2026 Spring Festival holiday (February 15–23), global capital markets did not rest. Amidst geopolitical games, monetary policy expectations, and industrial technological revolutions, Hong Kong stocks, U.S. stocks, and commodities all experienced significant fluctuations, providing important references for post-holiday A-share investment strategies.

Hong Kong Stocks First Declined, Then Rose, with Technology as the Biggest Highlight

As an important indicator of the A-share market’s post-holiday trend, the Hong Kong stock market experienced a “first decline, then rise” pattern during the Spring Festival. The Hang Seng Index increased by a total of 1.94% within the range, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose by 1.82%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index edged up by 0.47%.

In terms of specific periods, on February 16, the half-day market on Lunar New Year’s Eve saw Hong Kong stocks open lower and then rebound. Semiconductor, AI applications, and non-ferrous metals sectors all strengthened collectively, with stocks like GigaDevice H-shares and Lankeng Technology H-shares surging over 17.00% intraday. On February 20, the Hong Kong market weakened overall, but AI and robotics concept stocks surged against the trend, with Zhituo soaring 42.72% to a record high, and Yuejiang closing up 21.40%. On February 23, Hong Kong stocks opened high and continued to rise, with the Hang Seng Index closing up 2.53%, led by semiconductor and internet technology stocks, while some previously high-flying stocks pulled back.

On the news front, during the Year of the Horse Spring Festival Gala, four robotics companies—Songyan Power, Yushu Technology, Magic Atom, and Galaxy General—appeared in variety shows, martial arts, songs, and micro-movies. E-commerce platform data showed that within two hours of the Gala broadcast, robot searches increased by over 300% compared to the previous period, customer inquiries rose by 460%, and order volume increased by 150%. Additionally, AI application deployment accelerated. On February 20, Seedance 2.0 large model made its debut in a public application scenario centered around the Gala, deeply involved in visual production for multiple programs.

Hong Kong SAR Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po stated at the opening ceremony on February 20 that over the past four Year of the Horse cycles, the Hong Kong stock market recorded three years of gains, all achieving double-digit increases; during the Year of the Snake, the Hang Seng Index rose nearly 6,500 points, a 32% increase, setting a record for the best performance in a Snake year. He believes that technological change is accelerating, with artificial intelligence, life sciences, and quantum computing reshaping the competitiveness of economies.

Huatai Securities recently pointed out in a research report that during the Spring Festival, market differentiation in Hong Kong stocks increased, with AI new forces diverging from internet giants. Looking ahead, short-term risks include fluctuations caused by index and Hong Kong Stock Connect adjustments, especially for stocks that have recently surged.

U.S. Tariff Policies “Change Overnight,” Southeast Asian Manufacturing Centers May Benefit

Beyond Hong Kong stocks, during the Spring Festival, U.S. stocks maintained a volatile upward trend amid inflation data and policy negotiations. From February 15 to 22, the Nasdaq rose by 1.51%, the S&P 500 increased by 1.07%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.25%.

On the news front, U.S. January CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, below the market expectation of 2.5%, and slowed from 2.7% in December of the previous year; core CPI increased by 2.5% YoY, with a monthly increase of 0.3%, both in line with expectations.

However, the Federal Reserve’s January meeting minutes revealed clear disagreements among members. The minutes emphasized that inflation has remained above 2% since early 2021, with a significant risk that inflation could be more persistent than expected. The market widely anticipates that the first rate cut window will likely be delayed until June or July.

What further drew global market attention was the sudden change in U.S. trade policy. According to CCTV News, on February 20, the U.S. Supreme Court announced a ruling that the Trump administration’s large-scale tariffs enacted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were unlawful.

On the same day, after the Supreme Court ruling, Trump announced that, based on the U.S. Trade Act of 1974, Section 122, he would impose a 10% import tariff on global goods for 150 days to replace the tariffs deemed unlawful by the court. On February 21, Trump posted on social media that he would raise the “global import tariff” rate from 10% to 15%.

However, Chuang Securities believes that overall, U.S. tariff rates are likely to decline slightly in the short term, and the long-term tariff landscape remains largely unchanged. Since the implementation of reciprocal tariffs in April 2025, the impact of tariffs on the economy and inflation has been limited.

CMB International Securities noted that in terms of tariff figures, the 150-day uniform tariff differs from previous specific tariffs. Countries and economies previously subject to higher tariffs, such as Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia, may benefit, especially as Southeast Asian manufacturing centers.

Geopolitical Risks Push Oil and Gold Prices Higher, Bullish Metal Market Still Intact

In commodities, during the Spring Festival, precious metals and energy products both experienced strong rallies. From February 15 to 22, London silver increased by 9.42%, COMEX silver rose by 8.47%; London gold rose by 1.37%, COMEX gold increased by 1.66%; ICE Brent crude oil gained 5.62%, NYMEX WTI crude oil rose by 5.57%. On the morning of February 23, gold and silver continued to rise.

The ongoing tense geopolitical situation remains a major driver. During the holiday, the diplomatic process of the Russia-Ukraine conflict reached a critical point. According to Xinhua News Agency, representatives from Russia, the U.S., and Ukraine concluded their first day of talks in Geneva, Switzerland, on the 17th, without issuing any official statements. Ukrainian President Zelensky stated on social media that Russia launched a large-scale airstrike against Ukraine on the 17th. Russia fired 29 missiles of various types, with 25 intercepted, and deployed nearly 400 drones. Zelensky ordered Ukrainian negotiators to question these airstrikes, especially the U.S., which had previously suggested both sides cease airstrikes.

Additionally, the U.S.-Iran situation remains unresolved. According to Xinhua, Iran’s Fars News Agency reported on the 17th that as part of military exercises, some areas of the Strait of Hormuz were temporarily closed for several hours, a critical waterway through which about 20% of global oil supplies pass. Also, The New York Times reported on February 22 that Trump had told his advisors he was inclined to carry out a preliminary strike on Iran in the coming days.

China Galaxy Securities analyzed that increasing endogenous disruptions from geopolitical risks are likely to cause frequent oil price pulses. Regarding precious metals, the firm further pointed out that in the medium to long term, the core logic of a bull market in precious metals remains solid. Currently, gold’s core rationale has shifted from short-term interest rate battles to hedging against long-term dollar credit risks and the restructuring of the global monetary system. Central banks’ continued gold purchases provide strong support.

Post-holiday A-share Outlook: Volatility with Three Major Investment Themes

As overseas markets digest information from the Spring Festival, the post-holiday A-share opening will enter a phase of concentrated processing. Several leading securities firms have issued their outlooks on market trends and allocation strategies.

Overall, Huatai Securities believes that the first day after the holiday may see A-shares opening slightly lower, but the overall market sentiment remains positive. After a small dip, a quick rebound is expected, and investors are advised to optimize holdings during the opening window, focusing on AI applications, humanoid robots, and other oversold sectors.

Shenwan Hongyuan Securities pointed out that A-shares experienced a small wave of adjustments before and after the holiday, with the lower end of the fluctuation range yet to be confirmed. Many factors still suppress risk appetite, and the market may continue short-term adjustments post-holiday, with structural opportunities concentrated in technology sectors that showed new highlights during the holiday.

In sector allocation, institutions generally favor three main themes: First, the technology growth theme, focusing on AI, robotics, and storage chips. Huachuang Securities believes that intensive industry catalysts during the holiday period suggest that the technology sector may lead the rally. Shenwan Hongyuan also emphasizes robotics, large AI models, and AI applications as key sources of short-term structural opportunities. Galaxy Securities also noted that hotspots like robotics and AI large models are likely to show structural highlights after the holiday.

Second, the precious metals and commodities theme. Huatai Securities notes that high valuations, high consensus, and rising global macro risks may keep volatility high in major assets in the short term. Repeated U.S. tariff policies, ongoing U.S.-Iran uncertainties, rapid AI technological iterations, fluctuating U.S. rate cut expectations, and the pace of domestic and international economic recovery all increase market uncertainty. Portfolio strategies should balance win probability and payout ratio, with most global equities and commodities still favoring a bullish stance.

Third, the pro-cyclical theme. Huachuang Securities pointed out that the five major cyclical sectors with strong supply advantages—such as metals, chemicals, machinery, steel, and building materials—are expected to benefit from rising prices, with PPI expectations turning positive and amplifying the valuation and price elasticity of cyclical resources. Focus on reducing the degree of internal competition to improve performance.

(Disclaimer: The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate at their own risk.)

(Source: 21st Century Business Herald)