2026 New Year Message | Zhuque Fund: Embrace the Pain, Bring It On

Opening Remarks: The Year of the Horse Spring Festival has arrived, bidding farewell to the old and embarking on a new journey. Reflecting on the past year, the securities industry’s transformation deepened, and high-quality development in the public fund sector progressed remarkably; looking ahead to the new year, the “14th Five-Year Plan” kickoff awaits new blueprints. On this festive occasion, Cailian Press launches the 2026 “Securities and Fund Industry New Year Message” column, sincerely inviting leaders of securities firms and fund management companies to contribute messages, share hopes for the new year, and discuss the future.

Dear Investors:

“We understand the past, but cannot control it; we can control the future, but cannot fully understand it.” Standing at the threshold of the new year, this famous quote by Claude Shannon, the father of information theory, is more meaningful than ever.

2025 is a year of global order restructuring and dual breakthroughs in technological paradigms. Global markets advance amid turbulence and change, driven by the surge of AI, evolving international situations, and economic cycle rotations, weaving a complex and magnificent picture.

The current wave of overseas capital markets began with the release of ChatGPT in October 2022, driven mainly by the surge in AI capital expenditure by the “Big Seven” tech giants. By 2026, market expectations for capital spending have risen to $500-600 billion. Behind this enormous figure, it reflects that AI is undergoing a profound shift from virtual to physical. The Atlantic Monthly describes: the US re-industrialization centered on AI, from large-scale data center construction and semiconductor supply chain restructuring to exporting top domestic technologies globally, sketches a future blueprint where technological strength is deeply intertwined with national competitiveness.

Scaling law technologies continue to advance, exciting the tech industry. We believe that domestically, the supply of computing power in 2026 is highly likely to further increase, but it may still fall short of domestic model demands, making computing power a key focus. Overseas, China’s supply chain still holds significant comparative advantages; along with technological progress, opportunities for Chinese supply chains remain ample.

This urgent need for infrastructure is extending from computing power manufacturing to the energy sector. Jensen Huang compares AI to a “five-layer cake”: the bottom layer is not chips but energy—without electricity, there are no data centers, and no so-called “AI factories.” Above that are chips and systems, infrastructure and software, AI models and applications.

The exponential growth in computing power demand not only drives large-scale electricity consumption in data centers but also sparks a revolution in power supply architecture. Nvidia’s single cabinet power may leap from hundreds of kilowatts to 1MW, a leap in power density that will fundamentally reshape energy supply models. Elon Musk believes that energy is the only “hard currency,” and future global competition will focus on energy acquisition and conversion capabilities.

China has unique advantages in this field: decreasing costs of renewable energy, a well-developed electricity market, and technological innovations in long-distance transmission lines are opening domestic and international markets for energy transition companies. Coupled with policies to reduce internal competition, these create real opportunities for energy transformation enterprises.

The same industrial logic is reflected in commercial space and space photovoltaic sectors. Despite technical and cost bottlenecks, from a higher perspective, the market essentially reflects the global demand for China’s manufacturing capacity and cost reduction ability. Although domestic competition is fierce, China’s manufacturing competitiveness remains irreplaceable; companies should adopt a long-term view, progressing from “Chinese champions” to “world champions,” focusing on the resonance of “Chinese supply + overseas demand.”

However, even though the current tech sector may not yet be in a broad bubble, we must remain vigilant against localized overheating—given high valuations, market share, and gross margins of leading companies, shifts in industry expectations could be dramatic. It’s essential to stay forward-looking, focus on companies that create long-term social and economic value, and beware of reckless pursuits. The phase of indiscriminate buying of tech-related stocks may be over; future screening will become more rigorous. Only those truly generating social value and capable of translating technology into profits will survive in the competition.

Beyond AI, China has also achieved landmark breakthroughs in innovative pharmaceuticals. The industry has entered an era of “co-creation,” where domestic innovative drug solutions have shifted from optional to standard in multinational pipelines. Benefiting from advances in biotechnology, breakthroughs in translational medicine, and efficiency gains from AI and automation, opportunities for new targets, therapies, and sectors are emerging worldwide. Based on technological revolution cycles, this global trend is expected to continue for several years—long and winding, but with a clear upward trajectory.

In the medium to long term, the barriers to innovative drug R&D will inevitably rise, especially in global clinical development. Deep understanding of clinical needs and possessing forward-looking or differentiated innovation are key to long-term survival for innovative drug companies. Meanwhile, M&A strategies of multinational pharma are shifting toward more long-term value considerations, becoming more open and active—such as strengthening synergies with core areas, building new technology platforms, or acquiring potential blockbuster drugs through licensing and M&A, to mitigate patent cliff risks.

However, the business models and valuation characteristics of innovative drugs mean they are subject to significant short-term volatility. High-quality companies may present attractive prices during market fluctuations, making this an exciting time for long-term investors.

Embrace the times, respect the cycles. On one side, AI technology advances rapidly; on the other, the international environment becomes increasingly complex. Market economy vitality and entrepreneurial spirit flourish, yet comprehensive reform still faces heavy tasks. The first year of the “14th Five-Year Plan” will inevitably see both elevation and collision. Market risk premiums may be low; AI technology and energy revolution compete on the same stage, and market pains in the Year of the Horse are unavoidable.

2026 will be a critical year for China to break the deflationary spiral. The Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that the macro tone for 2026 is “steady progress with quality and efficiency,” continuing proactive fiscal policies and moderate monetary easing.

Currently, we are experiencing a shift from “investment in physical assets” to “investment in people”: through initiatives like the “two 10-trillion-yuan” plans, increasing transfer income for middle- and low-income groups, and bridging urban-rural public service gaps. As Liu Shijin suggests, building a “consumption powerhouse” should be alongside “manufacturing powerhouse” and “financial powerhouse,” not only for macro balance but also to improve the environment for technological innovation.

Human history is essentially a series of survivor biases— from the industrial revolutions of the past 200 years to today’s generative AI, perhaps only a few pioneers, after repeated attempts, have moved the “creator” to act. China today boasts a vibrant array of market entities and entrepreneurs, which is a valuable asset in global competition.

As investors, Zhuque Fund remains humble, curious, and committed to learning from the perspective of industry development, understanding the core competitiveness of leading companies, and building empathy with outstanding entrepreneurs. Only then can our valuations be more grounded and our courage to make bold moves be sustained.

Zhuque Fund is fortunate to have caught the golden era of China’s economic rise and technological enterprise growth, which deepens our sense of responsibility to serve clients while improving ourselves. In the new year, waves of opportunity and challenge surge forward. We will continue to deepen industry chain research, view the future objectively from the shoulders of giants, and maintain sensitivity and resolve amid market complexity—“weed out the weeds, nurture the flowers.” On this long journey to success, we are willing to walk with you, patiently awaiting the fragrance of value.