$XAG This week (February 23rd - March 1st, including the remaining trading days of this week and the beginning of next week), precious metals are overall **tending towards sideways strength, with a high probability of continued rebound**. However, volatility will still be significant, making it difficult to break new highs in a straight line. Market sentiment has shifted from last month's panic-driven sell-off to a dominance of “safe-haven + structural support.”

Current real-time levels (latest spot reference around February 23rd):
- **Gold** ≈ $5,100–5,150 / oz (intraday fluctuations have repeatedly pushed above 5100, with some periods touching 5140+)
- **Silver** ≈ $84–86 / oz (recent strong rebound from lows, with elasticity significantly greater than gold)

### Key drivers this week
- **Geopolitical safe-haven demand**: The latest US stance on Iran nuclear issues (ultimatum window), ongoing Middle East tensions remain the main driving force. Gold has shown signs of “decoupling from a strengthening dollar,” which is historically a super bullish signal.
- **Macro factors**: Focus on US PCE data this week (if cooler or in line with expectations, it’s positive for precious metals); if Fed officials continue to sound dovish or neutral, it supports a rebound. As long as the dollar index doesn’t surge suddenly, pressure on metals remains limited.
- **Technical analysis**: Gold weekly chart has formed a hammer candlestick + stabilized above 5000; the bullish alignment on hourly/daily charts is clearly recovering. The silver/gold ratio has compressed to around 62-63; historically, during such compression phases, silver tends to outperform.
- **Fundamental flows**: Signs of ETF inflows restarting, central banks’ gold buying pace not slowing, and Asian physical demand (post-Chinese New Year return) all support the market.

### Probable scenarios for this week (probability ranking)
1. **Sideways upward movement + mild rebound (55-65%)**
Gold is likely to test resistance levels around **5150–5250** and possibly **5300**; silver may push toward **88–92**.
As long as there are no extremely negative catalysts (e.g., runaway PCE inflation + dollar surge), bulls will continue probing higher.

2. **High-level turbulence + shakeout then rally again (25-30%)**
Initial surge to attract longs, then a pullback to around **5000–5050** (gold) / **80–82** (silver) before climbing again.
This has been the most common pattern over the past two months, especially with silver’s high volatility, often experiencing intraday swings of over 10%.

3. **Unexpected correction or flash crash (10-15%)**
Only in extreme cases (e.g., sudden strong dollar + risk appetite fully returning, or Middle East tensions easing abruptly). Gold would need to fall below **4950** to break the trend, and silver dropping below **80** would be even more severe.

Summary: It’s unlikely that precious metals will **drop sharply** this week. More probable is a **“rise, shakeout, then rise again”** wave pattern. Gold remains more stable (suitable for medium-term holding or buying on dips), while silver offers more short-term volatility and excitement (but avoid chasing high or over-committing).

Major institutions’ current main target remains in the **5500–6500** range for gold (year-end/long-term), and **85–100+** for silver. So, overall, the current levels are not considered expensive, especially from a long-term perspective.

Are you focusing on short-term swings or medium-to-long-term positioning? Or do you already hold positions? Feel free to share your plan, and I can give you more tailored insights.