How will the A-shares market perform after the Spring Festival? Based on historical patterns, these three major sectors have a higher probability of rising. Key beneficiary stocks summarized.

Choice data shows that over the 20 years from 2006 to 2025, the probabilities of the Shanghai Composite Index rising within 5, 10, 20, and 30 days after the Spring Festival are 75%, 70%, 80%, and 60%, respectively. The median gains and losses are 1.64%, 1.32%, 9.45%, and 3.88%. Although the market experiences fluctuations, the overall “spring rally” trend is evident.

Guosheng Securities believes that in the past decade, during the four weeks after the holiday—meaning one month after the Spring Festival—industries such as coal, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, and national defense military industry tend to perform best more frequently. In recent years, the computer industry has taken the lead.

In a research report released on February 7, Hua Yuan Securities’ researchers, including Zha Hao, stated that 2026 may be the final year for the concentrated release of thermal coal capacity. Based on new coal mines coming into production, analysts expect that in 2026, raw coal output could increase by 70 million tons. The domestic supply and demand situation remains loose, with policies promoting capacity exit or transfer to reserve capacity. If policies are implemented, there is potential for a reduction of 150 million tons in capacity. Additionally, the “14th Five-Year Plan” policy recommends further optimization of energy resource base layouts, and underdeveloped capacities outside the main production areas (non-Jin, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia) may restart or exit. Imports of coal are also expected to continue decreasing in 2026. Analysts believe the loose market pattern will persist, with policies on supply-side capacity reduction likely to intensify, and the output of clean energy sources like wind, solar, and hydropower may increase volatility. They suggest paying attention to (1) policy implementation timing; (2) opportunities arising from weather changes that weaken wind, solar, and hydropower output, thereby sharply increasing coal demand. Currently, coal prices are at a cyclical low. Given the high inventory levels and the industry’s current inventory digestion cycle, focus on leading coal companies with high dividends, with core recommendations including China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal Industry; also consider Yanzhou Coal Mining.

On February 13, Dongguan Securities’ researchers, including Wei Hongmei, released a report on the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, stating that by 2025, the capacity of breeding sows will continue to decline, and pig supply is expected to gradually decrease in 2026. Pig prices are expected to gradually rebound in 2026, and breeding profitability is likely to improve. Currently, the capacity of breeding sows still has room to decrease. Investors should focus on leading pig breeding companies with expectations of capacity reduction and profit recovery. In broiler chicken farming, attention should be paid to profit margin improvement opportunities for leading companies. In animal health, focus on companies with strong R&D capabilities and smooth progress. In the pet market, domestic and international markets still have significant growth potential, so focus on domestically leading companies with growth potential. Key stocks to watch include: Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, Shengnong Development, Lihua Group, Haid Group, China Animal Husbandry Group, Guibao Pets, and Reip Biological.

Shanxi Securities’ analysts, including Luo Zhiwei, released a strategy report on February 5 for the defense and military industry, stating that 2026 marks the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan. The construction of new domain and new quality combat capabilities will continue to strengthen. Global geopolitical turmoil will drive a new round of arms races. The Chinese systematized advanced equipment, tested on the battlefield, will face new opportunities to reshape the global military trade market. In 2026, multiple new medium and large rockets will be launched for their first flight, and recoverable technology will accelerate breakthroughs. With effective resolution of capacity bottlenecks, commercial spaceflight is expected to enter an explosive growth phase. Recommended sectors include missile weapon systems, new aerospace equipment, unmanned systems, and commercial space. The new military revolution mainly focuses on three aspects: precise guidance of munitions, unmanned weaponry, and networked battlefield systems. Within these sub-industries, key recommendations are missile weapon systems, new aerospace equipment, and unmanned systems. As capacity bottlenecks are gradually removed and satellite internet deployment accelerates, commercial space will experience an industry explosion, becoming one of the main investment themes in 2026.

Recommended key companies include: North Navigation for missile weapon systems. North Navigation develops and produces core control modules for precision-guided weapons, occupying a central position in the industry chain. For new aerospace equipment, recommend AVIC Shenyang and AVIC High-Tech. AVIC Shenyang’s successful development of the new J-35 stealth fighter makes it the third company worldwide capable of mass-producing qualified stealth fighters, with huge future domestic and export demand. AVIC High-Tech is a key manufacturer of aerospace-grade carbon fiber prepreg, positioned at the core of the carbon fiber industry chain, responsible for R&D, production, and supply of prepreg materials for various new aerospace systems, with a monopoly advantage. For unmanned systems, recommend Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group. As a leader in ground combat equipment, it has deepened integration with tactical UAVs through equity investments, creating integrated air-ground unmanned combat systems, which could bring growth opportunities for its ground equipment products. For commercial space, recommend Aerospace Electronics and Guobo Electronics. Aerospace Electronics is a major supplier of space-grade and missile connectors and data bus products, supporting key electronic components for launch vehicles, directly benefiting from the booming commercial space industry. Guobo Electronics is a leading domestic provider of active phased array T/R modules, which are core components for low-earth orbit satellite payload platforms; multiple T/R modules have already been delivered to satellite customers.

(Article source: Cailian Press)