#BTC行情分析 Bitcoin falls below $68,000, the largest options expiration in history has yet to settle, and some institutions predict it could return to $100,000 by 2026!

The recent downturn in the crypto market finally reveals its core issue! As of the close on February 22, 2026, the international price of Bitcoin is quoted at $67,230 per coin, down 1.23% in 24 hours, with a nearly 11.5% decline over the past week, and a 23.8% drop over the past month. From the peak of $126,000 in October 2025, it has plummeted nearly 47%, with a nearly halved price trend that has many investors worried. Many wonder: despite the long-term bullish outlook for the crypto industry, why has Bitcoin recently been weak and oscillating downward? The answer has long been hidden in a major news report—Sentora Research’s latest report points out that on December 26, 2025, Bitcoin experienced the largest options expiration in history, with a notional value of up to $24 billion. These options are mainly concentrated on global core derivatives platforms like Deribit, and this is the key reason behind Bitcoin’s recent underperformance. Today’s article is packed with insights, clearly explaining all doubts at once: combining the latest Bitcoin prices, dissecting the origins of this $24 billion options expiration, analyzing how market makers’ hedging operations suppress prices, interpreting the core logic of Sentora Research’s “pressure release period,” and ultimately predicting whether Bitcoin can re-approach the $100,000 mark in Q1 2026, helping everyone accurately grasp the future trend of the crypto market!

First, understand: what does a $24 billion options expiration really mean?
Before analyzing the impact, let’s give beginners a quick primer to avoid confusion with technical jargon—
Bitcoin options are essentially “contracts to buy or sell Bitcoin at a fixed price in the future,” and “options expiration” means the end of the contract’s validity, where both parties must fulfill (exercise) or abandon (forgo exercise) the agreement. The options expiring on December 26, 2025, have two core features that are bound to cause significant market impact and are key to Bitcoin’s recent weakness:
Unprecedented scale: a notional value of up to $24 billion, far exceeding any previous options expiration (the largest before was only $18 billion), accounting for about 1.3% of Bitcoin’s current total market cap. Such a massive options expiration will inevitably trigger large-scale capital movements.
Highly concentrated strike prices: a large portion of the open interest in these $24 billion options is concentrated at strike prices above $100,000—simply put, many investors previously agreed to buy or sell Bitcoin at $100,000 per coin, but the current Bitcoin price has been below $100,000 for a long time. Most of these options are “out-of-the-money” (exercising would result in a loss).
More importantly, these options are mainly concentrated on the Deribit platform— as the world’s largest cryptocurrency options exchange, Deribit accounts for over 85% of the global Bitcoin options market share. The options expiration activity on this platform directly influences the sentiment and capital flow in the entire Bitcoin derivatives market, thereby affecting spot prices.

Core analysis: why does options expiration lead to recent weak Bitcoin performance?
Sentora Research clearly states that the main reason for Bitcoin’s recent weakness is “market makers’ hedging operations before the $24 billion options expiration.”
Some may ask: who are market makers? Why can their hedging operations suppress Bitcoin prices? The logic is simple—here’s a breakdown:
Market makers are like “intermediaries” in the Bitcoin options market, responsible for taking on investors’ options contracts and ensuring market liquidity. With a large portion of options having strike prices above $100,000, and Bitcoin’s price remaining below that level, most investors will choose to “abandon exercise” at expiration. To avoid losses, market makers must hedge in advance—continuously selling spot Bitcoin to offset potential losses.
For example: suppose a market maker has taken on many options contracts where investors buy Bitcoin at $100,000. If Bitcoin’s price rises above $100,000 before expiration, investors will exercise their options, and the market maker will need to sell Bitcoin at $100,000. If the spot price is higher than $100,000, the market maker incurs a loss. To avoid this, market makers hedge by continuously selling spot Bitcoin before expiration—this suppresses Bitcoin’s price, keeping it below $100,000. When investors choose not to exercise, market makers can avoid losses.
This synchronized selling by many market makers creates enormous selling pressure, leading to Bitcoin’s downward oscillation and weak trend. Market data supports this:
In late December 2025 (a week before expiration), spot Bitcoin selling pressure surged, with a maximum daily sell-off of 12,000 coins, pushing the price from $82,000 down to below $70,000;
By February 2026, as the expiration’s residual effects combined with rising global risk aversion and institutional capital outflows, Bitcoin’s price further declined, briefly falling below $60,000, and only recently stabilizing around $67,000.
Additionally, Sentora Research notes that this “price suppression before expiration” is not unique—historical data shows that whenever large-scale Bitcoin options (notional value over $10 billion) are about to expire, and open interest is concentrated at strike prices above the current price, market makers tend to sell off spot Bitcoin, amplifying price volatility. The scale of this $24 billion expiration further magnifies this suppressive effect.

Positive signals: Sentora Research bullish! Post-expiration, Bitcoin will enter a pressure release period?
Although Bitcoin has recently been weak, Sentora Research offers a clear positive outlook: after large options expirations, markets often enter a “pressure release period,” during which potential buying interest may re-emerge, and Bitcoin could re-approach the $100,000 level in Q1 2026. The core logic of this view still revolves around “market maker operations”—specifically, “end of hedging, reduction of selling pressure, return of buying interest”:
Hedging ends:
After the December 26, 2025 options expiration, market makers no longer need to hedge against “exercise losses,” and their previous hedging sales will cease. Market selling pressure will significantly decrease, and the price suppression factors will disappear—this is the key premise for Bitcoin’s rebound.
Potential buying interest:
Post-expiration, some funds that had exited for hedging reasons will re-enter the spot market (since Bitcoin’s long-term value remains recognized). Meanwhile, as selling pressure diminishes, some long-waiting investors will seize the opportunity to buy, gradually releasing potential buying power that supports Bitcoin’s price rise.
Historical evidence: Sentora Research reviewed the past five large Bitcoin options expirations (notional value over $10 billion) and found that in four of these cases, Bitcoin entered a “pressure release period,” with prices rebounding 15%-30% within 1-3 months. Given the larger scale of this $24 billion expiration, the rebound momentum after pressure release is likely to be even stronger. Current market signals are promising: as of February 22, Bitcoin holders have transferred about $474 million worth of Bitcoin out of exchanges, a trend that usually indicates accumulation and long-term holding intentions; meanwhile, fund outflows have slowed, and some funds have even slightly increased their positions, suggesting market panic is easing and buying interest is gradually recovering.

Objective forecast: can Bitcoin return to $100,000 in Q1 2026? (Cycle-based analysis)
Combining the latest Bitcoin price ($67,230 per coin), Sentora Research’s views, market capital flows, and industry trends, here is an objective forecast of Bitcoin’s future trend—short-term and mid-term (Q1 2026), without exaggeration or misleading:
Short-term (1-4 weeks): consolidating at the bottom, gradually easing downward pressure
In the near term, Bitcoin is likely to maintain a “consolidation at the bottom” pattern, with limited upside and no large declines. Two main reasons:
First, the residual effects of options expiration have not fully dissipated, and market sentiment remains cautious; capital entry is conservative.
Second, some small-scale options are still expiring at the end of February (with $7.3 billion in Bitcoin options expiring), so there will still be minor selling pressure in the short term. Prices are unlikely to break out quickly. Expect Bitcoin to fluctuate between $65,000 and $72,000, gradually digesting selling pressure and repairing market sentiment, laying the foundation for subsequent rebounds. Minor volatility is possible, but overall downside is limited—since current prices have already fallen nearly 47% from the all-time high, further declines lack strong momentum.

Mid-term (1-3 months, Q1 2026): potential for rebound, but difficult to re-attain $100,000
Based on Sentora Research’s analysis, Bitcoin may have a rebound opportunity in Q1 2026, but re-approaching $100,000 will be challenging. The most probable scenario is a “rebound but not surpassing” trend, for the following reasons:
✅ Bullish factors: pressure release after options expiration, potential buy-in return, combined with the long-term bullish trend of the crypto industry, could trigger a 20%-30% rebound, pushing prices toward $85,000-$90,000, possibly approaching $95,000.
⚠ Bearish factors: first, Bitcoin’s valuation remains relatively high; after the sharp decline, market funds are becoming more rational and less likely to chase high prices blindly. Second, the global macroeconomic environment still has uncertainties—concerns about the Fed’s balance sheet reduction have not fully eased, and institutional capital is not eager to enter in large scale, lacking the core drivers to push prices above $100,000. Third, the demand for hedging against downside risks is rising, with put options near $40,000 having a notional value close to $500 million, limiting upside potential.
In summary, Sentora Research’s view that “Bitcoin has a chance to return to $100,000” is more of a “long-term expectation.” In Q1 2026, it’s unlikely to be achieved. The more probable trend is “oscillating rebound, testing the $90,000 mark, but struggling to break through $100,000.”

Long-term (6-12 months): focus on capital flows and industry trends, $100,000 remains the core target
Over the long term, whether Bitcoin can re-attain $100,000 or even surpass its all-time high depends on two key factors: first, global cryptocurrency regulation policies (if regulations loosen, capital will flow in massively, driving prices higher); second, the scale of institutional investment (currently, institutions hold a relatively low proportion of Bitcoin, and large-scale entry would be a major driver for price increases).
Sentora Research believes that if Bitcoin can successfully consolidate in Q1 2026, then starting from Q2, with increased institutional participation and expanding crypto use cases, Bitcoin is likely to gradually approach the $100,000 mark, and could even set new all-time highs before the end of the year.