Wall Street Insights Breakfast FM-Radio | February 23, 2026

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Market Overview

U.S. Q4 GDP underwhelms, December core PCE inflation exceeds expectations, U.S. stocks open lower, Supreme Court rules Trump tariffs illegal, the three major U.S. stock indices accelerate rebound intra-day, closing at over a week high; among the “Big Tech Seven,” Microsoft declines alone, Google gains nearly 4% to lead, the outlook of tariff reduction boosts Amazon up over 2%, leading the Dow components; Anthropic tools spark panic again, cybersecurity stocks plunge, SailPoint down over 9%; Oracle declines over 5% contrary to market trend.

U.S. Supreme Court overturns tariffs, fiscal concerns intensify, U.S. Treasury yields hit daily highs, long-term bonds lead declines, after a Fed hawkish minutes last week, short-term bonds drop in price; Dollar Index quickly turns lower and hits daily low, ending four consecutive days of gains, but still posts the largest weekly increase in four months; Gold and silver accelerate gains, reversing weekly decline, intra-day gold up over 2%, silver futures once up 9%.

The yen declines for three consecutive weeks, down 1.5% for the week; offshore RMB recovers above 6.90, rising for three weeks in a row; Bitcoin once above $68,000, up over 2% from the daily low. Market focuses on the prospects of US-Iran agreement, crude oil closes mixed, tensions between US and Iran help oil prices rise at least 5% for the week, first weekly gain this month.

During Asian hours, on the first trading day of the Year of the Horse, Hong Kong stocks decline over 2%, large models and storage stocks surge against the trend, Zhipu jumps nearly 43%, robot concept stocks explode.

News Highlights

China

CCTV Yuyuantan Tian: Which US tariffs on China will be stopped according to the Supreme Court ruling? The new media under CCTV points out that since February last year, the US has imposed new tariffs on China mainly in two parts based on IEEPA. One is “Fentanyl tariffs”, currently at 10%; the other is “reciprocal tariffs”, currently at 10% on China, with remaining 24% tariffs temporarily suspended. According to US executive orders, these tariffs enacted under IEEPA will be “terminated as soon as possible.”

Total box office for Chinese New Year films in 2026 exceeds 5 billion yuan. Data from online platforms show that the total box office (including pre-sales) for films during the 2026 Spring Festival exceeds 5 billion yuan, with the top four being Flying Past Life 3, Silent Zhou, Dartman: Winds Rise in the Desert, and Boonie Bears: Year of the Bears.

Zhipu apologizes for GLM Coding Plan issues and announces compensation scheme. Zhipu states that the main mistakes in this revision are: insufficient transparency of rules, slow progress of GLM-5 gray scale, and rough upgrade mechanism for old users. Affected Lite and Pro users can apply for refunds independently.

Overseas

US Supreme Court rules Trump tariffs illegal, over $175 billion in taxes face refunds. The court rules that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not grant the president authority to impose tariffs without Congress approval. Impact on reciprocal tariffs, steel, aluminum, and auto tariffs are unaffected. Trump calls the ruling “shameful,” considering alternative measures. The ruling does not specify whether tariffs should be refunded. Economists estimate that tariffs collected exceed $175 billion; full refunds could cut tariffs by more than half. Following the ruling, US stocks hit new highs, dollar and US bonds hit lows, gold and silver gains expand.

On the day of the Supreme Court ruling, Trump uses emergency powers to impose an additional 10% global tariff, hinting tariffs will be much higher than before.

• Trump on Friday said that his use of legal tools will be more powerful than the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) rejected by the Supreme Court; all tariffs under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 and Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, including “national security tariffs,” remain in effect; no need for Congress approval, and if more authority is needed, it will be approved. Trump becomes the first US president to impose tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.
• White House announces a temporary 10% import tariff effective from February 24, lasting 150 days. Exemptions include certain key minerals, metals used in currency and bullion, energy, and energy products.
• Trump hints that illegal tariffs will not be refunded, US Treasury Secretary says tariff revenue will “basically stay the same” this year. The Supreme Court ruling leaves refund issues to lower courts. Trump claims the ruling is flawed, does not mention whether previous tariff revenues will be retained, and expects years of legal battles. Bessant estimates government tariff revenue closer to $130 billion, not the $175 billion suggested by research models; tariffs will return to previous levels but in a more complex manner.
• On Saturday, Trump raises the new tariff rate from 10% to 15%, effective immediately, sparking a wave of lawsuits from companies demanding refunds of tariffs paid under Trump’s policies. As of Saturday 21st, hundreds of companies including Costco have filed suits.
• In response to the Supreme Court ruling, USTR launches new Section 301 investigations, covering most major trading partners. The investigation will accelerate, focusing on drug pricing, discrimination against US tech companies, and digital services taxes. USTR Grier said that despite the ruling potentially disrupting Trump’s tariff policies, the White House expects trade agreements with partners to remain unchanged.
• The reciprocal tariffs rejected by the Supreme Court, but Trump has multiple tools. Compared to IEEPA, the most relied-upon tool, Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, and the controversial Section 338 of the Trade Act of 1930, all have more restrictions.
• Don’t celebrate too early—Wall Street expects market reactions to be short-lived. The relatively mild fluctuations in stocks, bonds, and currencies are partly because markets had already anticipated this ruling, and Trump indicated backup plans. Concerns over AI, software stocks, and Middle East tensions may attract more attention. Trump has at least five alternative legal tools for tariffs, but all will exert upward pressure on long-term US bond yields.
• $175 billion in tariff refunds are a fiscal stimulus for stocks, debt increase for bonds, and uncertainty for gold and silver.
• South Korea states that the US-Korea trade agreement remains valid, the Supreme Court ruling does not alter the framework. The Korean government said that the ruling invalidates the current 15% reciprocal tariffs on Korean goods, but sectoral tariffs on autos and steel remain effective. Korea will closely monitor US actions and support affected companies, aiming to act in the best national interest.

Trump confirms considering limited military strikes on Iran, Iranian Foreign Minister: to finalize the US-Iran agreement draft within three days. According to CCTV, Trump said he is considering a limited initial military strike on Iran to force Iran to accept US nuclear deal demands. Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi said there is no military solution to Iran’s peaceful nuclear program, only diplomacy. IDF spokesperson said Israel’s military is on high alert. Oil prices fluctuated little by Friday’s close.

• US media: Hameini and his son are targets of US strikes.
• Global Times: Foreign media report that US-Iran negotiations are deadlocked, Iran’s foreign minister refused to open the missile-laden letter from the US and returned it.
• Iran’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement on Saturday, listing all EU navies and air forces as “terrorist organizations” in response to the EU designating Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization.
• US officials: if Iran quickly submits a nuclear deal draft, talks may be held on the 27th (Friday).
• Iran’s foreign minister: may meet US envoy on the 26th, reaching an agreement soon. Iran is drafting the deal and may meet US envoy Wittkoff in Geneva on the 26th.
• Oman’s foreign minister Badr said on social media that the next round of US-Iran talks will be held in Geneva on Thursday, the 26th.

US Q4 GDP grows only 1.4%, government shutdown drags growth down by 1 percentage point, Trump preemptively criticizes Powell. US Q4 2025 real GDP preliminary annualized growth is significantly below the 2.8% expected, at 4.4% previously, slowing sharply. Despite full-year growth of 2.2%, declining consumption and exports, labor market worries, and stubborn inflation complicate outlook. Before the data release, Trump criticized the shutdown and pressured for rate cuts, attracting market attention.

The Fed’s preferred inflation indicator exceeds expectations! US December core PCE price index up 3% YoY. The core PCE index, favored by the Fed, rose 0.4% in December, the largest increase in nearly a year; YoY core PCE up 3%, compared to 2.8% early 2025.

US February S&P Global manufacturing and services PMI underperform, hitting multi-month lows. February manufacturing PMI preliminary at 51.2, down from 52.4 in January, 7-month low. Services PMI preliminary at 52.3, down from 52.7 in January, 10-month low. Composite PMI preliminary at 52.3, down from 53 in January, the lowest since April 2025, weaker than UK and Japan.

Eurozone manufacturing PMI hits 3.5-year high, driven by Germany, France remains below expansion threshold. Eurozone economic activity accelerates, but firms cut jobs for the second month in a row, Germany’s employment declines, France steady, other regions see employment rise. HCOB chief analyst said that with stable expansion and high service inflation, ECB is likely to keep key rates unchanged.

Japanese Prime Minister’s policy speech: break “excessive fiscal austerity,” suspend food consumption tax, increase investment in AI and other industries. Takashi Sano advocates for “proactive fiscal policy,” reaffirms two-year suspension of food consumption tax, and plans multi-year budgets to boost AI and chip industries. She also promises to control debt growth while stimulating the economy, setting specific indicators for fiscal reform progress, ensuring debt growth remains within economic growth rate.

• Will Japan’s overseas capital “massively flow back”? Despite large net purchases of Japanese bonds in January, Goldman warns against misjudging the “return wave”. Domestic retail demand for overseas stocks remains strong, but institutional investors are hindered by large US-Japan interest rate differentials, with weak signs of capital flow back. Goldman notes that if macro risk appetite remains, interest rate differentials stay stable, and Japan’s fiscal expansion continues, yen depreciation pressure will persist.

Russian Central Bank sold 300,000 ounces of gold reserves in January, worth $1.4 billion. First reduction since October last year, aimed at covering budget deficits. Gold holdings fell to 74.5 million ounces, but thanks to soaring gold prices, total value of reserves increased 23% in January to $402.7 billion.

Anthropic releases Claude security tool, cybersecurity stocks plunge. The new tool scans codebases for security vulnerabilities and offers targeted patches for manual review. Currently in limited research preview, the news triggers a sell-off in cybersecurity sector, with Global X Cybersecurity ETF down nearly 5%, hitting a new low since November 2023. SailPoint and Okta down over 9%, Cloudflare down 8%.

Rumor may be true? Nvidia’s “$100 billion investment” in OpenAI “cut by 70%”. Reports say Nvidia is close to finalizing a $30 billion stake in OpenAI, replacing the previously announced $100 billion deal. The original agreement failed due to disagreements and internal doubts, Nvidia CEO Huang Renxun emphasized it was non-binding. The new funding round could exceed $100 billion, with OpenAI’s pre-money valuation reaching $730 billion.

Report: OpenAI sharply cuts 2030 expenditure target to $600 billion, with gross margin dropping to 33% in 2025, raising profitability concerns. The revised total compute expenditure target is much lower than the previous infrastructure commitment of $1.4 trillion. OpenAI expects total revenue to exceed $280 billion by 2030, with consumer and enterprise contributions roughly equal. The company still projects cash flow turning positive by 2030.

SK Hynix via Goldman Sachs conference call: all customer demands unmet, storage prices to rise continuously this year. SK Hynix signals a seller’s market: current DRAM and NAND inventories are only about 4 weeks, with no customer fully satisfied. As 2026 HBM capacity exhausts, severe shortages of standard DRAM are boosting vendor bargaining power, and long-term supply contracts are being negotiated.

Selected Research Reports

Morgan Stanley evaluates MiniMax as a “top-tier global foundational model asset”, with high valuation based on “technology ceiling and global reach”. If MiniMax continues to rank among the top models worldwide, its ceiling depends on global TAM; if revenue is mainly overseas, valuation anchors to international comparables, not traditional Chinese software firms.

Understand the global market since 2026: what’s rising? Why are US stocks underperforming? Will this trend continue? Goldman’s report reveals new market directions: cyclicals still have room to rise; but AI and hot themes are overvalued, high volatility may become normal; dollar likely to weaken further; caution on overvalued sectors, diversify holdings, maintain healthy non-US exposure (including emerging markets), and consider long-term volatility long positions.

LPDDR6 era arrives! AI demand is fierce, next-gen DRAM will enter the market faster than expected. LPDDR6 offers 1.5x performance boost over previous generation, with commercial rollout as early as H2. Nvidia, Samsung, Qualcomm are actively deploying. Most HPC chip designs consider parallel integration of LPDDR5X and LPDDR6, especially in chips below 4nm, with demand exceeding expectations.

Domestic Macro

Post-holiday liquidity outlook: Over 22 trillion yuan of reverse repos mature in the first week. Additionally, 300 billion MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) will mature. “Given the large liquidity pressure in the first week after the holiday, government bond payments, deposit maturities, and new listings at the Beijing Stock Exchange also exert pressure, combined with tax period flows, liquidity gaps are significantly widening,” says CICC in a report. January’s “strong deposits, weak loans” dynamic weakens bank liability logic, and liquidity gaps marginally increase.

Domestic Companies

Hong Kong tech stocks diverge: “AI new stars” favored, “profitability worries” drag on giants. On the first trading day, funds rotate heavily! AI newcomers like Zhipu and MiniMax surge, while giants like Alibaba and Tencent see outflows. Domestic AI firms accelerate model updates, with holiday and Spring Festival performances amplifying AI attention, driving initial capital into pure AI stocks. Despite strong data from major firms, with Qianwen and Yuanbao’s active users rising, heavy subsidies and regulatory concerns over costs and profitability increase market sensitivity.

Key enterprises in Optics Valley keep working during the holiday, full capacity production. AI high-speed optical module orders extend into Q4. Huagong Tech reports that during the holiday, Wuhan and Thailand factories operated fully, resuming work on the first day, ensuring mass delivery of 1.6T and 800G optical modules.

Overseas Macro

US Treasury relaxes, proposes revisions to sovereign wealth fund tax plan, previously warned by private equity. The US Treasury is making concessions on a proposal to tax sovereign wealth funds and public pension funds. The plan, previously proposed by the IRS, aimed to classify most US debt holdings of these funds as business activities, risking taxation. Private credit and PE firms warned that such reforms could negatively impact foreign investment in US markets.

Overseas Companies

Dalio’s family office heavily invests in gold, fully exits Bridgewater, reveals US stock holdings, totaling $500 million. The Dalio family office disclosed US stock holdings for the first time since the pandemic. As of late last year, holdings were about $503 million, up a third from early 2021. Over 75% of funds are in gold ETFs, with the rest in US bonds and S&P 500. Analysts see this as Dalio shifting focus to family office investments after leaving Bridgewater.

Google’s “AI team” counters bubble doubts: this is an industrial revolution, 10x faster and larger scale. Google CEO at India AI summit revealed Google Cloud backlog doubled to $240 billion, supporting high capital expenditure. DeepMind CEO predicts general AI still 5-10 years away. Google executives agree AI will fundamentally change workflows for SMEs and scientific research, with India transforming from a market to a “full-stack builder” in AI.

Google releases Gemini 3.1 Pro, inference performance doubles. Major upgrade of Google’s foundational model! Gemini 3.1 Pro launched, inference scores double, logic reasoning jumps to 77.1%, code capabilities near Opus 4.6. The new model emphasizes multi-source data and complex task decomposition, available for preview immediately, accelerating Google AI ecosystem.

OpenAI plans AI speakers, glasses, and smart lamps, earliest delivery in 2027. OpenAI is assembling a team of over 200 to develop AI hardware including smart speakers, glasses, and lamps. The first product is a camera-equipped smart speaker, priced around $200–$300, shipping as early as 2027, supporting environment and face recognition payments. Smart glasses expected in 2028.

SpaceX IPO via “curved investment,” Korean broker’s future assets could surge 200% this year! Korean broker’s future assets stock price could double within a year, seen as a “shadow stock” betting on SpaceX’s $1.25 trillion IPO, with over $400 million invested in SpaceX and xAI. Despite strong fundamentals, valuation is three times the five-year average, caution for correction.

Upcoming Market Highlights

US December durable goods orders.

Trump considers limited military strikes on Iran, Iranian Foreign Minister: to finalize US-Iran agreement draft within three days.

Risk Warning and Disclaimer

Market risks are present; invest cautiously. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not consider individual user’s specific investment goals, financial situation, or needs. Users should evaluate whether any opinions, views, or conclusions herein are suitable for their circumstances. Responsibility for investment decisions rests with the user.