CounterPoint: Apple iPhone Fold as a key catalyst, set to ignite the large foldable phone market in 2026

IT House, February 12 — Market research firm CounterPoint Research published a blog post yesterday (February 11), estimating that 2026 will become a structural inflection point for the global foldable smartphone market, with the market focus shifting from novel form factors to practical value.

The firm predicts that by 2026, book-style foldable devices (large foldables) will account for 65% of global foldable shipments, up 13 percentage points from 52% in 2025. IT House has attached the relevant forecast infographic below:

In contrast, the market share of flip-style foldables (small foldables) is expected to gradually decline, being positioned more as fashion-oriented or entry-level high-end supplement products.

Apple’s entry will be a key catalyst for this transformation. The market widely expects Apple to launch its first foldable device in the second half of 2026, adopting a book-style form factor.

It is reported that this device will feature a 1:1.414 wide foldable screen ratio, aimed at optimizing multitasking, document viewing, and content consumption experiences. This design clearly targets productivity scenarios rather than mere form exploration. Apple’s involvement will not only reshape the competitive landscape of the book-style segment but also accelerate the overall market adoption.

In response to this trend, the Android ecosystem is rapidly adjusting its strategy. Samsung reached a critical turning point in the second half of 2025, with the Galaxy Z Fold7’s shipments surpassing those of the Z Flip7 for the first time, indicating progress in addressing the traditional pain points of book-style devices.

Meanwhile, Samsung is preparing to launch a wider book-style model to better support multi-pane productivity applications. Additionally, Motorola and Google are also releasing new products or continuously updating their product lines.

From the industry’s underlying logic, tight memory supply is prompting manufacturers to reevaluate their product strategies. As mid- to low-end smartphones face risks of memory shortages, manufacturers are placing greater emphasis on high-end devices, prioritizing profit margins over shipment volume.

Book-style foldable screens, with their high-end configurations and large memory capacities, perfectly align with this value-driven growth strategy. As the market matures, software experience and ecosystem readiness will become core differentiators, and seamless application continuity will be a key metric for user experience.