Market Almanac: What the Data Reveals About the S&P 500 After a Federal Reserve Change

MetaverseVagabond · 2026-02-22T19:14:45+00:00

Jeffrey Hirsch, CEO of Hirsch Holdings, reassures that a new Federal Reserve president won’t negatively impact markets. Historical data shows a 60% chance of S&P 500 gains in three months and 90% in a year, particularly when excluding extreme market disruptions.

MetaverseVagabond

2026-02-22 19:14:45

Abstract generation in progress

According to a recent analysis by Jeffrey Hirsch, CEO of Hirsch Holdings, the appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair should not raise concerns about market performance. Hirsch, whose work published in the Trader’s Almanac is highly regarded in the industry, relies on solid historical data to support this optimistic outlook.

Historical Data of the S&P 500 After a Nomination

Reviewing past instances shows encouraging results. In the three months following such a nomination, the S&P 500 has a 60% chance of rising. These figures, documented in the Trader’s Almanac, demonstrate a recurring positive trend. Over a one-year period, the probabilities improve even further: a 90% chance of the index ending higher, with an average gain of 12.7%.

Amplified Gains When Excluding Exceptional Periods

When the analysis excludes periods of extreme turbulence—such as Meyer’s depression and the 1987 crash during Greenspan’s tenure—the frequency and magnitude of gains become even more impressive. The Almanac reveals that markets have generally shown remarkable resilience during transitions in Federal Reserve leadership, even if some historical milestones remain memorable. These data suggest that changes in monetary leadership do not systematically signal a bearish outlook for investors.

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