Technical Overview of the Crypto Market: Cap Analysis and Altcoin Potential in Fear Conditions

The cryptocurrency market continues to be in a state of deep fear. As of February 22, the Fear & Greed Index shows an extreme level of 7–9, reflecting overall asset overselling. The global market cap is approximately $2.36–$2.40 trillion, indicating a recovery after previous losses. However, the buying momentum is weak — trading volume around $42–$45 billion is still insufficient for a sustainable upward impulse. Bitcoin dominance continues to grow and has reached 56.6–58.8%, meaning altcoins are experiencing intense pressure from bears.

Global Cap and Market Metrics: Signals of Panic and Redistribution

The overall market cap shows a dual picture. On one hand, a rebound after a shakeout indicates the presence of buyers at low levels. On the other hand, trading volume increases on speculative pullbacks, which suggests unorganized recovery. The global cap remains below previous peak levels, and rising BTC dominance confirms capital fleeing from altcoins into a safer store of value.

Fear & Greed remains in the extreme zone, indicating that most traders are still in panic. This creates mixed signals for traders: on one side, such a level of fear historically precedes recoveries; on the other, liquidity withdrawals continue, which could lead to even larger short-term market cap pullbacks.

BTC: Rebound in Fear Amid Overall Market Pressure

Bitcoin is trading at $67,430 with a 24-hour decrease of 1.70%. Despite the current rebound, the price remains under pressure, and BTC cap has fallen to $1.348 trillion. Technical indicators show a neutral stance on higher timeframes, but lower charts are oversold — RSI is around 46, MACD shows a weak bullish impulse at about 0.26.

Support levels are around $68,000–$69,000, where a rebound remains likely. However, resistance at $72,000–$74,000 presents a significant obstacle to recovery. Multi-timeframe analysis shows no divergences; indicators are turning upward, but the momentum remains weak. Over the next 24 hours, growth has a 55% probability with targets of +2–5% ($71,500–$73,500), decline — 25% down to $68,500–$67,000, flat — 20%. The basic strategy: long positions are justified from support with a strict stop-loss, shorts only on a breakdown below support.

ETH, SOL, XRP: Altcoins Under Pressure from Growing BTC Dominance

Ethereum is trading at $1,940 with a 24-hour decrease of 2.60%. ETH cap is $234.56 billion. The technical signal remains neutral with a slight long bias. Support is at $2,000–$2,050, resistance at $2,150–$2,200. Trading volume has decreased to $198.28 million, indicating trader apathy. The forecast for 24 hours is more pessimistic: equal 40% chances for upward or downward movement, 20% flat. If reversed upward, expect +1.5–3.5%; if pulled back downward, −3–6%. Overall: downward pressure dominates, long positions are risky, shorting is the preferred choice.

Solana shows a weaker picture — price dropped to $83.23 with a 24-hour decline of 3.94%. SOL cap has shrunk to $47.31 billion, trading volume is $43.90 million. The technical signal is neutral with a slight short bias. Altcoins face increased pressure amid rising BTC dominance. Supports are at $85–$80, resistance at $90–$92. Forecast: basic short with 50% probability of decline; upward pullback could lead to +2–4%, downward −3–7%.

XRP is trading at $1.39 with a 3.93% decrease. The coin’s cap is $84.82 billion. The signal is neutral without a clear direction. Support around $1.40, resistance at $1.48–$1.50. The market is consolidating: 40% chance of flat or slight growth, 40% chance of decline. Short positions are not sufficiently justified by risk potential. Altcoins remain trapped by rising BTC dominance, which redirects cap from smaller projects to Bitcoin.

Trading Strategies: Flexible Approach Amid Market Pressure

Current market conditions require a flexible trading approach. BTC offers short-term rebounds with controlled risk (up to 3–5x leverage). Altcoins present the best risk-reward in shorts during pullbacks to resistance, especially as cap continues to shift toward Bitcoin.

The market remains defensive, momentum is weak, focus is on risk management. Extreme fear creates a basis for potential reversal, but confirming signals are lacking. Traders should expect further consolidation with possible new pullbacks until the global cap recovers on healthier volumes. Entry decisions depend on personal risk tolerance and levels where convincing technical setups appear.