Bernstein Analysis: Current Bitcoin Decline Is the "Worst" Bear Market Case, Heading Toward $150K USD by 2026

The analysis team at Bernstein has recently expressed an interesting perspective on the current state of Bitcoin. These experts believe that this is not a structural crisis, but simply a temporary loss of confidence, and they refer to this as the weakest bull market case Bitcoin has ever experienced in history. In a report sent to clients on Monday, led by Gautam Chhugani, Bernstein affirmed that recent price pressures do not weaken Bitcoin’s long-term investment thesis. The firm maintains its $150,000 price target by the end of 2026.

Why This Downturn Case Is Different

The unique feature of the current Bitcoin correction case lies in the absence of traditional risk factors. According to Bernstein, this sell-off lacks the typical signs of previous bear markets: no major failures, no hidden leverage, and no systemic collapse. “This is the weakest Bitcoin downside case in its history,” the experts write.

Instead, the decline reflects more of a market psychology issue rather than fundamental flaws. Quantum computing concerns, company leverage fears, or balance sheet issues are not the main drivers behind this sell-off. That’s why Bernstein concludes that the risks of a panic sell-off have significantly decreased.

Macro Backdrop: Reasons Supporting the $150K Target

The environment surrounding Bitcoin today is clearly different from previous downturns. Bernstein points out that the adoption of spot Bitcoin ETFs has created a new class of investors. Corporate treasury holdings are increasing, large asset management funds are accumulating, and the political environment in the U.S. is more favorable than ever.

Unlike past declines, there is currently “nothing explosive” in the ecosystem. No major stress appears on balance sheets, even as investor sentiment has soured. These structural factors—from ETF infrastructure to institutional participation—are pillars supporting the $150,000 target by 2026.

Addressing Doubts: Gold, AI, and Quantum Risks

Some recent comments suggest that Bitcoin is underperforming gold during times of stress. Bernstein explains that Bitcoin still primarily functions as a risk asset, influenced by market liquidity. It has not yet become a mature safe haven like gold. Tight financial conditions and high interest rates currently favor gold and AI stocks, while Bitcoin would benefit from improved liquidity conditions.

Regarding concerns that Bitcoin is losing relevance in the AI economy, Bernstein disagrees. The firm argues that blockchain and programmable wallets are well-suited for a digital environment driven by automation, where software systems need globally readable financial data. This is an area where traditional banking infrastructure remains limited.

On quantum computing—a concern raised recently—Bernstein admits it poses long-term cryptographic challenges. However, Bitcoin is not uniquely exposed. All critical digital and financial systems face similar risks and are likely to transition to quantum-resistant standards in parallel. Bitcoin’s open-source code and increasing institutional involvement are seen as advantages in adapting to these challenges.

Leverage and Balance Sheet Concerns

Bernstein also addresses worries about highly leveraged corporate Bitcoin holdings. Major corporate holders have structured their debt to withstand prolonged downturns. According to data from Strategy cited by Bernstein, these companies would only need to restructure their balance sheets if Bitcoin drops to around $8,000 and stays there for five years. Such a scenario is considered extremely unlikely.

Regarding pressure from miners, Bernstein notes they have diversified revenue streams. Instead of solely mining Bitcoin, they have reallocated electricity capacity to AI data centers, reducing their Bitcoin production costs. This significantly lowers the risk from miners during price adjustments.

Why the Current Downturn Doesn’t Change the Long-Term Picture

Based on all these factors, Bernstein concludes that the current decline does not threaten the long-term acceptance trajectory of Bitcoin. Structural elements—from ETF infrastructure, institutional participation, to improved liquidity conditions throughout the cycle—continue to support the $150,000 target by 2026.

With Bitcoin trading at $67,430 and down 1.70% in the past 24 hours, Bernstein emphasizes that this is a benign correction compared to previous crises. This bear market case, although long-term technical, is viewed as a normal cycle test rather than a fundamental danger. Despite short-term volatility, Bitcoin’s long-term outlook remains strongly supported by ongoing organizational and technological changes.