⚠️This week, global markets are experiencing a very busy data flow. Especially after last week’s below-expected growth and above-expected core PCE data from the US, the data to be announced this week will be decisive for market direction.

Here is the critical economic calendar you need to follow day by day and its possible impacts on the markets:
February 23, Monday:
• Germany Ifo Business Climate Index: We will see how the business community in Europe’s locomotive, Germany, views the economy.
• Market Impact: An above-expected data could strengthen the Euro (EUR) and boost European stock markets.
• Speeches by Fed Officials: Throughout the day, speeches by Chicago Fed President Goolsbee and Atlanta Fed President Bostic will be followed. Their messages regarding the interest rate cut process could cause fluctuations in the dollar index (DXY).
February 24, Tuesday:
• US S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index: The trend in the housing market is an important leading indicator for future inflation.
• US CB Consumer Confidence: Measures US consumers’ confidence in the economy.
• Market Impact: An increase in confidence could lead to higher spending and persistent inflationary pressures, strengthening the dollar and putting pressure on gold.
February 25, Wednesday: Eurozone Inflation and Australia CPI
• Eurozone Final HICP (January): Will the inflation data remain consistent with the preliminary figure of 1.7%?
• Australia Monthly CPI: Especially important for commodity-focused markets.
• Market Impact: An upward revision in Eurozone inflation could delay the ECB’s rate cut expectations.
February 26, Thursday: Employment and Growth Revisions
• US Unemployment Claims: As every week, we will gauge the resilience of the employment market.
• Market Impact: Higher-than-expected claims could be perceived as easing the Fed’s stance, which might be positive for stocks and cryptocurrencies, but negative for the dollar.
February 27, Friday:
• US Producer Price Index (PPI): Last week’s rigid PCE data scared the market. Now it’s the turn for producer costs.
• Market Impact: A "hot" PPI (above expectations) indicates persistent inflation and could lead to a pullback in gold and selling pressure in stocks due to concerns that interest rates will stay high for a long time.
• Germany Preliminary HICP (February): Will give the first signal on how inflation in Europe will fare in the coming month.
General Assessment and Strategy
Markets are currently caught between the questions “Is inflation not falling?” and “Is a recession coming?” Last week’s weak growth and strong PCE data triggered fears of “Stagflation” (stagnation and inflation). The PPI data to be released on Friday will be the most important catalyst for the weekly market close.
In a data-driven market, attention should be paid not only to technical levels but also to calendar discipline...