(Combined with AI analysis) Lantu Automotive plans to go public on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange through an introduction on March 19, 2026: stock price forecast

Regarding the stock price forecast for VOYAH (Lantu Auto) planning to list on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange via a sponsor introduction on March 19, 2026, a comprehensive assessment should be conducted across multiple dimensions, including its fundamentals, market environment, valuation logic, peer comparison, liquidity expectations, and the unique nature of an “introduction listing.” The following analysis aims to provide investors with decision-making references, helping determine whether to reduce holdings at the high on the first day or to continue holding in the subsequent period.

1. Core Basis: Implicit Pricing from Dongfeng Group’s Privatization Plan
   This is currently the most authoritative and practically valuable anchoring point.

According to Dongfeng Group (00489.HK)’s announced privatization and spin-off plan in August 2025:

Each Dongfeng H-share shareholder will receive:
6.68 HKD in cash (tax-free)
0.3552608 Lantu H-shares

The overall consideration for this scheme has been widely accepted by the market as approximately 10.85 HKD per Dongfeng share (as estimated by institutions such as CICC, Huatai, etc.).

From this, the implied value per Lantu share can be inferred as:
(10.85 − 6.68) ÷ 0.3552608 ≈ 11.735 HKD per share

This 11.735 HKD was an internal valuation based on Lantu’s 2024 sales data (194 billion RMB revenue) and the prevailing new energy valuation environment (PS ≈ 1.9x) as of August 2025.

Note: This is not the IPO offering price but the accounting consideration in the privatization transaction, mainly used for tax and equity conversion purposes, and does not directly determine secondary market prices.

2. Fundamentals Have Significantly Surpassed Expectations: Valuation Should Be Adjusted Upward
   From August 2025 to February 2026, Lantu’s operational data has improved markedly:

• Full-year 2025 sales reached approximately 140,000 units (estimated from January 2026 delivery reports), far exceeding 80,000 in 2024;
• Net profit in 2025 was 1.017 billion RMB (official disclosure), achieving full-year profitability;
• Monthly deliveries exceeded 10,000 units for five consecutive months, with high-end MPV “Dreamer” and pure electric sedan “Zhuiguang” contributing significantly;
• Market expectations for 2026 sales have generally been raised to 180,000–200,000 units.

This implies that, if still using a PS=1.9x valuation, the 2025 revenue of about 34.8 billion RMB would correspond to:
Lantu’s reasonable market value = 34.8 billion × 1.9 ≈ 66.1 billion RMB ≈ 71.4 billion HKD

With a total share capital of approximately 3.671 billion shares (based on previous disclosures), the theoretical per-share value is about 19.45 HKD.

If we reference Li Auto’s current (early 2026) PS of about 2.2x (due to its profitability and high gross margins), Lantu’s valuation could reach 22–24 HKD per share.

3. Market Sentiment and Peer Benchmarking: Supporting Premium Listing

• Li Auto (02015.HK) currently trades around 160 HKD, with a 2025 PE of about 16x and PS of approximately 2.1x;
• Xpeng and NIO are still unprofitable, with PS below 1.0x;
• Leapmotor (09863.HK) is marginally profitable, with PS around 0.7x, and its stock price has been sluggish long-term;
• Lantu is the only new force with “profitable at listing + state-owned enterprise background + full-stack self-research + high-end positioning,” making it scarce.

Several brokerages (such as CICC, CITIC CLSA) issued reports in January 2026 with initial target price ranges of 18–25 HKD for Lantu’s listing phase.

4. Realistic Liquidity Expectations for the Introduction Listing: Likely to Open High but Volatile
   Reasons include:

• No IPO fundraising or cornerstone investors backing;
• The initial circulating shares are only about 885 million (roughly 24% of total shares);
• Most Dongfeng shareholders are passive holders with some willingness to realize gains;
  Therefore, even with strong fundamentals, the first day may see a “gap up—volatility—pullback” pattern.

Historical references:

• Yum China (2020): +46% on first day, then -12% the next day;
• KE Holdings (2022): +12% on first day, then sideways for two weeks;
• Jitu Express (2024): +33% on first day, but halved after one month.

Conclusion: A high opening probability exists, but blindly chasing the high is not advisable.

5. Post-Calibration First-Day Price Forecast (Practical Version)
   Scenario | Trigger Conditions | Opening/Closing Price Forecast | Action Advice
   Conservative | Weak market sentiment, HK market declines | Open 14–16 HKD, close 15±1 HKD | Buy/Hold, undervalued significantly
   Baseline (Most Likely) | Stable market, recognition of profitability | Open 18–22 HKD, close 19–21 HKD | Hold and observe, wait for Q1 data
   Optimistic | Renewable energy sector rebounds + capital chasing scarce assets | Open 24–28 HKD, intraday spike above 30 | Take partial profits on the rise, keep some core holdings

Most likely first-day closing range: 19–22 HKD

This range reflects a 70%+ upward revision from the implied valuation of 11.735 HKD, indicating significant fundamental improvement, yet not overly optimistic about future growth (still room compared to Li Auto’s PS of 2.2x).

6. Practical Investment Advice (March 19)
   If opening ≤ 18 HKD:
   → Consider it a mispricing opportunity, build or add to positions, aiming to hold for more than 6 months.

If opening is 19–23 HKD:
→ Do not chase the high, but also do not rush to sell.
Observe the trading volume in the first 30 minutes:

• If turnover >5% and price stabilizes, it indicates genuine buying interest; hold.
• If it surges past 25+ HKD with declining volume, consider halving the position to lock in profits.

If opening ≥ 25 HKD (especially ≥28 HKD):
→ Strongly consider reducing holdings, because:

• Corresponds to 2025 PS >2.5x, exceeding current ideal levels;
• No new capital support, and no catalysts for further rise until Q1 delivery data in April.

Final Reminder:
Lantu’s true value is not on the first day of listing but whether it can continue to demonstrate “profitability + growth” in 2026.
Long-term investors may find 20–22 HKD or below as a reasonable cost basis;
Arbitrage-focused investors (such as former Dongfeng shareholders) may view above 25 HKD as an excess return window.

Always make decisions based on your own cost basis, risk appetite, and position management.