Bernstein Reaffirms $150,000 Target for Bitcoin in 2026 Despite Current Correction

Bernstein analysts have a clear message for nervous investors: the recent drop in Bitcoin is not the catastrophic collapse many fear. With the current price around $67,470, the firm maintains its stance that this is simply the “weakest bull market” in the history of the digital asset, and its $150,000 target by the end of 2026 remains intact. In a note to clients last Monday, the team of analysts led by Gautam Chhugani offers a perspective that challenges the dominant pessimistic narrative.

What Sets This Bear Market Apart from the Past

Bernstein emphasizes a crucial point: the current price pressure lacks the toxic elements that characterized previous crypto market crises. Exchange bankruptcies, systemic leverage collapses, widespread balance sheet stress—none of these factors have appeared. Instead, what is observed is a temporary crisis of confidence, not a structural weakness in Bitcoin.

“What we are experiencing is the weakest Bitcoin bear case in its history,” the analysts wrote, highlighting that current sell-offs reflect declining sentiment rather than fundamental problems. The distinction is important: one thing is losing confidence temporarily; another is facing a compromised system.

The Institutional Support Missing in Past Crises

The key difference lies in the institutional context surrounding this cycle. Bernstein points out three pillars that did not exist in previous declines: first, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have normalized access; second, large corporations and asset managers are actively participating in the market; third, the U.S. regulatory environment has shifted toward political acceptance of the sector.

While previous crises “everything was exploding,” now nothing is blowing up. There are no panics, no capital runs, no urgent forced liquidations. This is precisely why Bernstein sees this correction not as a precursor to disaster but as a consolidation within a broader bullish cycle.

Responding to Skeptics: Gold, AI, and Quantum Risk

Critics point out that Bitcoin has underperformed gold during recent macroeconomic stress. Bernstein offers a nuanced explanation: Bitcoin is still traded as a risk asset sensitive to liquidity, not as a mature safe haven. When interest rates rise and liquidity contracts, assets like gold and AI-linked stocks benefit disproportionately. Bitcoin, instead, is positioned to shine when liquidity conditions improve.

Regarding concerns that Bitcoin is losing relevance in an AI-dominated economy, Bernstein argues the opposite. Blockchain and programmable wallets are the ideal infrastructure for a future where autonomous software agents require global financial rails. Traditional banking systems simply cannot provide that functionality.

As for quantum computing risks, Bernstein acknowledges the long-term cryptographic challenge but notes that Bitcoin does not face a unique threat. All critical digital systems will need to adapt, and Bitcoin’s open-source nature offers advantages for that transition.

Corporate and Mining Structures Are Protected

A recurring fear is that leveraged corporations or vulnerable miners could trigger a “domino effect” in prolonged downturns. Bernstein dismisses both concerns with concrete data.

Regarding major corporate holders like MicroStrategy, Bernstein notes that their debt structures are designed to withstand extended downturns. They would only face balance sheet restructuring if Bitcoin fell to around $8,000 and stayed there for five years—a scenario the analysts consider extremely unlikely.

Miners, meanwhile, have diversified income streams by redirecting energy capacity toward AI data centers. This reallocation reduces pressure on Bitcoin production costs and provides a cushion against short-term volatility.

Bernstein Reaffirms 2026 Outlook Without Changes

Considering all these factors—ETFs, institutional participation, improved structural protections, and improving liquidity conditions—Bernstein maintains that forced selling risks have materially decreased. Bitcoin’s long-term adoption trajectory remains intact.

The $150,000 target for 2026 is not a fleeting speculation but a logical outcome of ongoing structural dynamics. Yes, there will be volatility along the way. But for Bernstein, the current correction is merely a minor chapter in a deeper bullish narrative.