The bottom line becomes a stepping stone: How veteran players' chip analysis is rewriting market expectations

The current Bitcoin market is undergoing a profound reorganization of positions. In the short term, newcomers are cutting losses; in the medium term, those chasing higher prices are becoming deeply trapped; long-term holders are steadfastly defending the line. These three groups form distinctly different interests. According to the latest data, BTC’s current price hovers around $67,610, having broken through the previously discussed support level of $63,000. But what’s more worth noting is the underlying logic of capital flow behind this adjustment—whether it’s a routine shakeout or a stepping stone for the next rally.

Position Layering and the Current Trapped State: Who Is Under Pressure, Who Is Guarding

The harsh truth of the market is reflected in the distribution of positions. Currently, three main groups can be clearly identified, along with their pressure points:

First Layer: Short-term Holders Are Under Full Pressure. Newcomers holding less than half a year are the first to capitulate during the initial decline. Most of this group is now in full loss. They entered near recent highs, often with high leverage, and when prices fall, they face immediate liquidation or forced stop-losses. Their cutting of losses is the most decisive and is the initial source of selling pressure in the market.

Second Layer: Medium-term Holders Are Struggling. Investors who entered 6-18 months ago at costs between $85,000 and $103,000 are facing the greatest psychological challenge. Many bought during the FOMO-driven bull market, believing they would hold long-term, but now their losses are approaching 30-40%. This pressure is gradually spreading from the newcomers to this group. Whether they can withstand this correction is a major test of their mindset.

Third Layer: True Long-term Holders Are Protecting the Floor. Those holding for 1.5 to 2 years or more, with an average cost around $63,000, are the main force behind the current rebound. This group has experienced multiple cycles, tolerates volatility the best, and is most patient for the next growth phase. Their willingness to hold determines the strength of the current bottom.

The Truth About the $63,000 Support: Why Rising Cost Basis Reduces Selling Pressure

An counterintuitive phenomenon has emerged—when more people are trapped, the market’s selling pressure may actually decrease. It seems contradictory, but the principle is quite simple.

Those who bought at high levels and are now deeply trapped face two choices: cut losses and sell, or hold and wait for a rebound. If most choose the latter—meaning those who bought 6-12 months ago at higher prices decide to “stick it out”—they may currently be at a loss, but their steadfastness effectively reduces the supply of sell orders in the market.

In other words, rising cost basis (more people trapped at high levels) actually consolidates the bottom: these trapped holders will either wait for a rebound or be forced into long-term holding. Regardless of the outcome, they are unlikely to sell actively at the bottom. This “forced long-term holding” actually reinforces the current price support zone.

Bottom Defense and Stepping Stone Effect: The Market’s Self-Repair Mechanism

From a macro perspective, the current correction has a clear “water squeezing” characteristic. The last bull cycle saw over-leveraged funds and overly enthusiastic late buyers being pushed out of the market. Although painful, this process cleans up the position structure, allowing genuine long-term capital to settle.

The key point to observe is: if the $63,000 support can hold, and more trapped holders gradually convert into long-term holders over time, then the current bottom has the potential to become a stepping stone for the next rally. A stepping stone is not just a price bottom but a phase where the position structure is relatively stable, selling pressure is fully released, and long-term holders’ strategic intent is clear.

Previously, the $80,000 and $100,000 cost levels were not “ironclad bottoms” because most holders at those levels were institutions or retail investors following institutions, with relatively strong willingness to sell. But long-term holders around $63,000 differ—they aim for multi-year holding cycles, and short-term price fluctuations have minimal impact on them.

From Shakeout to Breakthrough: Key Observations for the Next Phase

The market’s performance in the coming weeks will determine everything. If prices can stabilize around $63,000, coupled with the continued “aging” (reinforcement of sunk costs) of long-term holders, the position structure will gradually become more solid. This stability is not rigidity but a dynamic equilibrium—selling pressure is released, and accumulation of positions occurs gradually.

Conversely, if this support is broken, liquidity below may still exist but will be less dense than in this zone. A breakdown could trigger panic selling, but it would also attract more aggressive bottom-fishing capital.

At this stage, the short-term traders’ focus is whether the $63,000 line can serve as a stepping stone. From the perspective of position distribution, veteran players have already shown enough defensive resolve. Newcomers are cutting losses, veterans are holding firm—this contrast indicates that the market is experiencing a normal “reshuffle” rather than a “collapse.” As long as this logic holds, there is room for the bottom to develop.