Reflections on public blockchains in 2026:

Thoughts on Public Blockchains in 2026:

1. The strategy of “controlling inflation + high-yield deposit campaigns + DeFi trifecta + founders’ meme campaigns + our own hyperliquid + crazy OTC sales to liquid funds” is no longer viable.

2. This isn’t just a problem Monad and MegaETH need to face; Rise, Fogo, and even N1 are also dealing with it. Old chains, depending on the situation, Sei and Polygon still seem to be experimenting, while most have already given up.

3. Projects incubated on day one of public chains still have questionable loyalty, because among the few founders in the industry, options include BNB Chain, Solana, and even Base. Most new chains are focused on deploying on public chain foundations’ funds. Once they secure backing through endorsements and raise capital, and after gaining the first wave of community users, founders are motivated: 1) to build their own app chains to support valuation; 2) to switch to other chains and compete.

4. As a result, some founders no longer call themselves part of xx ecosystem but refer to xx chain as our “GTM Partner.”

5. Therefore, if the ecosystem projects are too weak, they can’t be supported; if too strong, they risk backstabbing their benefactors like Lü Bu.

6. The original free-range, neutral public chain development model has basically ended. The valuation model based on MEV revenue needs revision (here’s @LeePima). Today’s public chains are more about carrying a controllable system rather than potential; under a controllable economic system, they focus on fintech.

7. Future public chains will be a centralized power structure, with top-down dev shops and CVCs. The main role of the treasury will be M&A, with aggressive vertical integration rather than ecosystem cultivation. In other words, there won’t be kingmakers like Solana anymore (cc. @mablejiang).

8. In this sense, BNB Chain, Tempo, and Monad are heading in the same direction, just with different resource allocations and regional contexts.

9. The final question is: how should we model FDV to speculate accordingly? And since the skill set is entirely geared toward a coin-selling, money-raising economic growth model—such as growth managers and operations—perhaps the old ticket to the game won’t fit the new era anymore.