Sola(SOL) Bottoming Out and Rebounding? On-Chain Data and Technical Indicators Show Double Bullish Signals

Solana has recently received strong support around $100, with on-chain indicators and technical patterns both signaling positive momentum. Traders are looking for opportunities for a price rebound toward $260. Based on the current price level of $84.59, achieving this target would mean a mid-term increase of over 150%.

On-Chain Demand Surges, Solana Sets TVL Record

Recent on-chain data shows that the development momentum of the SOL ecosystem is growing stronger. The total value locked (TVL) in the Solana network recently hit a new all-time high of 73.4 million SOL, worth approximately $6.2 billion at the latest prices. This surpasses the previous high set in June 2022, which was 68.3 million SOL, marking a new peak in ecosystem locked assets.

Even more notable is that daily on-chain transaction counts have reached a two-year high of 109.5 million, and decentralized exchange (DEX) daily trading volume recently hit an eight-month high of 51.3 million SOL. Weekly data is also impressive, with DEX trading volume over seven days reaching a twelve-month high of 264.8 million SOL.

These metrics reflect not only increased trading activity but also genuine demand within the ecosystem. In the second half of January, active addresses on SOL increased by an average of 115% daily, a metric that historically appears at price bottoms and is followed by significant price increases.

Breaking Multiple Resistance Levels Is Key to Rebound

From a technical perspective, SOL is forming a “V-shaped” bottom. According to the four-hour chart, after falling 25% from a high of $127, SOL found support near the $100 level and began to rebound. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered from oversold levels of 18 to 36, indicating increasing upward momentum.

However, the path to the $260 target is not smooth and requires breaking through several key resistance levels in sequence. The first target is the supply zone around $113–$115, which converges with multiple important trend lines. If successfully broken, the next focus is the supply zone between $125 and $130, defined by the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the 50-day simple moving average (SMA).

If these two critical zones are surpassed, SOL/USD could further rally toward the $150 supply zone (the neckline of the pattern), representing about a 77% increase from current levels. Looking further ahead, based on weekly chart patterns, if the rebound momentum continues, SOL could reach $260 in the coming weeks or months, representing over 200% gains from the current price.

Historical Benchmarks Suggest Significant Upside

Looking back, SOL has experienced similar rebound opportunities. During a rally in 2025, SOL rebounded from $95 and rapidly rose to around $250 between April and September, a 166% increase. If this cycle’s rebound from around $100 can replicate such a pattern, a 150% to 200% rise is well within reach.

Weekly charts also show that the 50-week moving average lies between $140 and $160, a zone that has historically suppressed price rebounds. Therefore, breaking above this range will be a key focus. Noted on-chain analyst Trader Tardigrade suggests that after bouncing off the lower boundary of the descending channel, SOL could rise toward the upper boundary at $215. Additionally, if the 20-day EMA recovers to support at $106, SOL could further rebound to the $120–$150 range.

Overall, Solana shows multiple conditions favoring a rebound: genuine on-chain demand, early technical bottom signals, and historical references. The key will be whether it can successfully break through multiple resistance levels to validate the continuation of this rebound.