Has Bitcoin still not hit the true bottom? An analysis from the perspective of the blue zone

You probably saw Bitcoin reach $60,000 recently and thought, “What a buying opportunity.” But here’s the concern: market analyst NoLimit raises a question that many ignore. While most are obsessed with the instant price, there’s a dimension that’s often overlooked—the time factor. At this moment (February 2026), BTC is trading at $68.13K, but that doesn’t invalidate a bigger question: are we really close to the bottom?

The Time Cycle vs. Price Analysis

If you examine Bitcoin’s last three major cycles (2012, 2016, and 2020), you’ll notice an intriguing pattern. It’s not just about sharp drops followed by immediate recoveries. The process is longer. Historically, what analysts call the “true bottom” tends to occur between 360 to 400 days after the previous cycle’s peak.

The implication? If we apply this metric to the current cycle, the math suggests the real base could still be far off—potentially in October or November 2026. That means even at $68.13K now, there’s considerable room for recalibration.

NUPL and the Blue Zone: The Indicator That Separates Greed from Opportunity

There’s a reliable on-chain analysis tool called NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss), which acts as a “market sentiment sensor.” It maps the level of greed or fear among network participants.

The critical point: the best time to buy isn’t when the price drops, but when NUPL enters the blue zone—that range which historically represents winning buys. Currently, the indicator hasn’t reached that zone yet. That’s a sign: it might not be the time to go all-in just yet.

The Uncomfortable Truth: What Is Really the Bottom?

Considering cycle analysis and NUPL’s blue zone, there are indications that Bitcoin could experience an additional dip before establishing a solid base. The estimated target range is around $45,000 to $50,000.

No one likes hearing about lower price projections. It’s uncomfortable. But in falling markets, those who can keep their composure and maintain dry capital tend to reap the best returns. If we see $45K later this year, it could be the opportunity you’ve been waiting for— but only if you have patience and prepared resources.