Ursa Major of Cryptocurrencies: Analysts Point to $60K as a Critical Bottom

Is the Bitcoin market finally reaching the bottom of this decline? According to analysts at Compass Point, the major bear that has been plaguing cryptocurrencies may be entering its final stages. Although short-term risks still exist, the scenario points toward a possible stabilization, especially if certain price zones are respected.

Final Phase of the Drop: Signs of Possible Stabilization

The major bear dominating the crypto market should not last indefinitely. As observed by Compass Point, the current downtrend cycle may be nearing its end, despite ongoing selling pressure. However, a much more severe collapse would require a significant systemic event, such as a widespread risk aversion crisis in the U.S. stock market.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $68.07K, reflecting a substantial drop from its previous peak. Volatility remains present, and many traders are closely monitoring key support levels.

$60K–$68K Zone: The Refuge of Large Accumulators

What is the key floor that truly matters? Analysts identify the range between $60,000 and $68,000 as the most robust support zone in the current cycle. The strongest level is near $65,000, precisely because long-term holders have historically accumulated heavily in this region.

On-chain data reveal that approximately 7% of the total supply held by long-term investors was acquired within this range during previous cycles. This significant percentage demonstrates strong conviction among patient buyers—investors who do not panic during bear markets. It’s a powerful sign that many see this zone as a genuine opportunity, not a trap.

Outflow Pressure: ETFs Transfer Volume Downward

A factor that cannot be ignored is the behavior of Bitcoin ETFs. Since mid-January, ETFs have reportedly recorded nearly $3 billion in net outflows. With more than half of ETF assets now showing unrealized losses, these outflows are expected to remain high.

This outflow pressure increases the downward price trend, creating a negative short-term dynamic. Simultaneously, the $81K–$83K zone has become a resistance level, making quick gains less likely without a significant positive catalyst.

The $70K–$80K Gap: A Fast Track to Further Declines

An important technical observation is that this range is characterized as a “pocket of air”—a region lacking significant structural support. Less than 1% of long-term holders’ supply was accumulated between $70,000 and $80,000.

This structural vacuum is problematic. If selling pressure intensifies, the price could fall rapidly through this zone without enough resistance to halt it. It’s like flying through an area of low atmospheric density—there’s no friction to slow the movement.

Extreme Scenario: What Happens if Bitcoin Breaks Below $60K

And what if the major bear shows even more strength? If Bitcoin falls below the critical zone of $60K–$68K, the next important support level would be around $55,000. But here’s the crucial point: such an additional drop would likely require extreme conditions similar to those seen in 2022.

Back then, a confluence of a crashing stock market, high interest rates, and massive crypto company bankruptcies (like FTX and Three Arrows Capital) pushed Bitcoin to its bottom. A collapse of that magnitude today would require comparable financial stress—not just in crypto, but across the entire U.S. financial system.

Risk Strategy: Navigating the Major Bear of Cryptocurrencies

The clear message from the analysis is that the major bear may be in its final phase, with $60K–$68K serving as a long-term key floor. Further declines are possible, but a catastrophic crash would require extreme conditions beyond individual traders’ control.

For those navigating this challenging market, the recommendation is to stay cautious, closely monitor support zones, and manage risk disciplinedly. Observe where large accumulators have historically bought, respect technical levels, and avoid emotional reactions when volatility increases.