In today’s tech market, there are two completely separate realities:

the world of semiconductors and the world of software.
The numbers don’t lie.
While 89% of semiconductor companies are trading above their 200-day moving average,
0%, yes, zero, of software companies have managed to do the same.
This divergence is the largest of its kind in the sector’s history.
Why is this happening?
Infrastructure comes first:
The world is racing to build AI data centers, which means spending is flowing directly into chips (semis) before software layers.
Software repricing:
Investors are increasingly concerned that generative AI could reduce the value of traditional software or make it easier to replace putting massive pressure on the sector.
Position rotation:
Liquidity is aggressively moving toward companies generating tangible profits from the current AI boom not those selling future promises.
The Bottom Line
We are in the “build the factory” phase before the “sell the products” phase.
Historically, semiconductors cannot outperform alone forever.
Either software catches up and proves its relevance in the AI era or a correction emerges to rebalance the tech landscape.
Smart investors watch this gap closely.
Historical divergences eventually close either through the rise of the laggard or the fall of the leader.