New Wallet Places $100K Bet on U.S.-Iran Strike in March

Forecasted market trading volume drops in February, Opinion data significantly shrinks

The total predicted market trading volume in February is 23.4 billion, down 12% from January, ending a five-month upward trend, mainly due to a significant drop in BNB Chain's Opinion trading volume to 3.1 billion. Meanwhile, Kalshi's trading volume hit a new high of $9.8 billion, indicating market segmentation and that prediction markets are gradually becoming mainstream financial applications.

Media: Son of Khamenei Chosen as Iran's Next Supreme Leader

Odaily Planet Daily reports that, according to the Iranian opposition news website "Iran International," under pressure from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Iran's Expert Assembly has elected Hassan Khomeini's son, Mojtaba, as the next Supreme Leader. The Expert Assembly is a special authority in Iran, established on November 12, 1983, responsible for electing and supervising the Supreme Leader of Iran. After the report was released, the prediction website Kalshi showed the probability of Mojtaba becoming Iran's Supreme Leader soaring to 77%.

February Pullback Ends Six-Month Growth Streak for Prediction Markets

February 2026 marked the first decline in prediction market activity since August 2025, yet trading volume remained high at $23.4 billion, indicating resilience and sustained interest despite a slowdown. Competitive market dynamics signal a shift towards stability.

The UAE considers striking Iran as the war spreads

The United Arab Emirates, after experiencing multiple missile and drone attacks, is considering military action against Iran. Although most of the attacks were intercepted, they resulted in 3 deaths and approximately 70 injuries. UAE officials stated they reserve the right to respond, with rising anger that could lead to intervention by regional powers. Market forecasts suggest a 51% probability that they will strike Iran before March 31.

Iran's crackdown on Gulf countries' pressure on the United States is counterproductive; multiple countries may retaliate against Iran

Iran's recent airstrikes on Gulf countries have sparked tensions with the United States, potentially prompting Gulf nations to unite in resistance and strengthen collective self-defense. The Gulf Cooperation Council held an emergency meeting, clearly defining red lines, demonstrating that Iran's attacks have actually deepened solidarity among the nations.

Kalshi: Supports trading price fluctuations of Rolex, Omega, and other watch brands

Foresight News reports that Kalshi has tweeted support for trading price fluctuations of watches such as Rolex, Omega, Cartier, and Tudor.